This breakout can no longer be explained as a weak rebound, but it is not yet time to confirm a bull market reversal.
$BTC consolidated around 63,000 before breaking out with volume above the 69K-70K downtrend line, reaching a high above 75,700.
This level is not only a technical breakout but also a short-seller stop-loss zone, a previous platform, and a confluence with the trendline, so the rally speed was very fast.
Historically, strong rebounds in bear markets often first break the downtrend line, then surge to the Fibonacci 38.2% or previous heavy chip concentration areas and get resisted. Calculating from the 126,000 high to the 58,000 low, around 74,000 is the 23.6% retracement, around 84,000 is 38.2%, and around 92,000 is 50%. $ETH$HYPE
73,500–74,000 is the short-term strength/weakness line
70,000–72,000 is the breakout retest zone
78,000–80,000 is the first resistance
82,000–84,000 is the most critical top zone of this rebound
My judgment: This rally has already shaken off weakness. Most likely, it will first oscillate upward, then diverge at higher levels. As long as the pullback does not break below 70,000, the rebound still has a chance to continue until late August to early September, with a target high of 78,000–84,000.
But if BTC falls back below 70,000 and fails to recover, this breakout will be defined as a false breakout, with the downside revisiting 65,000 or even 60,000–62,000. The current strategy is to be bullish but not chase the highs, waiting for a pullback confirmation. #BTC加速拉升,资金还能继续接力吗?
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