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tvbee
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说一个观点!中期仍然不能确认牛回,只要川普在,大牛的概率就微乎其微。
#BTC突破69000美元,这轮上涨能走多远?
最主要的当然是海峡、美伊关系。
川普想要的是对中东地区石油产能的一定程度的主导性(间接控制油价和石油美元),加上两国积怨已久,川普很难会允许伊朗拥有浓缩铀。
伊朗一方,今年2月28日,哈梅内伊一死,伊朗就开始封锁海峡。说明伊朗早有准备和计划的,堪称"挟海峡以令诸国"。
这不是第一次了,1979年伊朗就曾经"挟人质以令美国",当时还没有核武器、浓缩铀因素参与博弈,尚且经过444天时间,直到美国更换总统,双方才达成协议,伊朗释放人质。
显然现在的形势比1979年更复杂,别忘了当初主动中终伊协议的就是川普,伊朗对川普很难有信任。
所以,这一次没准真的要川普离任以后才能达成最终协议。
所以大家不必太FOMO,只要川普在任,可能就不缺上车的机会。
The short-term outlook should be mainly positive, with the backdrop of Trump's upcoming midterm election.
First, influenced by the Treasury's accelerated buybacks and changes in long-term U.S. Treasury expectations, the yield increase is slowing down and may even decline.
Second, the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in September, and likely not in October either. Going forward, Feng Brother believes it won't either, due to easing CPI, declining employment, and most importantly, U.S. Treasury risks.
Third, Da Da will visit the U.S. next month; logically, friendly relations between the two countries are also positive for sentiment and expectations.
Fourth, with the midterm election approaching, there should be no extreme conflicts. The Iran-Oman Strait joint management agreement has been reached; optimistically, the strait may be passable in phases.
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