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9 to 3, three votes collectively called for a rate hike, the first time since early 2016. The July minutes were released early this morning; Logan, Kashkari, and Hammack voted to directly raise rates by 25 basis points. But the more intense detail hidden in the minutes is that "several participants" supported a rate hike in July, and "many participants" said if inflation doesn't come down, tightening must continue. To translate: it's not just those three on stage wanting to hike, there are others offstage holding back. No one in the entire minutes mentioned a rate cut. At the start of the year, people were still hoping for a rate cut cycle; now those two words don't even deserve to appear. But the market was calm after reading it; the probability of a September hike actually dropped to only 33%. On the same day, $BTC surged close to 70,000, and $ETH spiked over 20% intraday, reaching above 2,300. The reason is simple: the minutes record events as of July 29, and the data has changed dramatically in these three weeks. July CPI fell to 3.4%, nonfarm payrolls cut 23,000 jobs (expected to add 83,000), unemployment rate at 4.1%. While the minutes shout that inflation is broadly spreading, in reality employment has already started to decline. This is the most contradictory part: hawks say oil prices, AI investment, and tariffs are pushing inflation, and waiting to confirm before acting would be too late; doves say employment is already weakening, so raising rates again would be suicide. Warsh went further, scrapping forward guidance entirely, dropping the line "Don’t watch the referee while playing football"—don’t guess my moves, watch the data. See you on September 15. But before then, any inflation data could turn this 9:3 split into 6:6. Just sharing thoughts.