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tvbee
tvbee
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【突发】财政部冒险出招——加速购买长期美债。【下篇】 不要想多了,和QE没有半毛钱关系! ┈➤此举风险在哪 如果几个月以后,美联储加息,那么风险就来了。 短债一般会随着利率走,会上涨,短债的成本压力就来了。 所以压力是同时给到了美联储和川普。 美联储加息与否,影响很大。 川普是否会继续和伊朗硬刚?这影响到海峡、油价和通胀。 ┈➤写在最后 降息,蜂兄认为可能还早,美伊、海峡和通胀短期还行(川普中期大选应该会相对温和),但中期仍然有风险。 但是加息,蜂兄认为概率越来越低了,美联储也要顾忌美债崩盘风险。 甚至阴谋论的认为,美联储近1年甚至不会加息了。蜂兄不相信财政部会和美联储完全没有沟通就做出这样的决策。调整美债期限结构是有些风险的行为。 #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高
tvbee
tvbee
[Breaking] The Treasury takes a risky move—accelerating the purchase of long-term U.S. Treasuries. [Mid-section] Don't overthink it; it has nothing to do with QE! ┈➤ Why is this move clever? Previously, Brother Feng summarized that after around July 24, the yields on short-term U.S. Treasuries of one year or less have been declining, indicating short-term bonds are being snapped up. So now the Treasury is simultaneously accelerating the issuance of short-term debt while speeding up the purchase of long-term debt. ◆ Short-term debt operation: increase supply to slow or even reverse price increases, thereby slowing or reversing the decline in yields. ◆ Long-term debt operation: reduce supply to slow or ideally reverse price declines, causing yields to slow their rise or ideally fall. This also affects market expectations, so people really do buy long-term bonds, which is why today's 30-year Treasury yield dropped in response: opening at 5.285%, now down to 5.2%. As the long-term U.S. Treasury yield, the risk-free rate, falls, this is a short-term positive for risk assets. From the Treasury's perspective, think about it: borrowing at an annualized rate of about 3.8% to repay liabilities at around 5% annualized is definitely beneficial in the short term! Moreover, short-term yields are trending downward, while long-term yields are trending upward. #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高

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