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Cato_KT
Cato_KT
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贝森特的救市能否成为长期的政策利好还很难受 甚至在这个节点救市,很难不让人怀疑贝森特是具备一定的政治因素在 马上中期选举,特朗普在中东谈判被动,高油价,高通胀预期,债市高利率,股市高估值,消费转疲软 如果在不压制一下利率,特朗普中期选举必败无疑,甚至还会被弹劾。 所以,此时此刻贝斯特的救市,到底何意味,还不能确定啊!#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高
Cato_KT
Cato_KT
What signal does US Treasury Secretary Yellen's sudden "market rescue" mean for the market? In this macro-sensitive phase, Yellen's market rescue seems so "coincidental"
What signal does U.S. Treasury Secretary Becent's sudden "rescue" signal signal for the market? During this sensitive macroeconomic period, Becent's rescue seems like such a "coincidence." Just now, the U.S. Treasury officially announced that starting September 9, 2026, it will expand the scale of single bond purchases, increasing from the original $2 billion to even $4 billion. This policy covers 10-, 20-, and 30-year Treasuries. Simply put, the Treasury is increasing the scale of single bond purchases, adjusting the market supply of long-term medium- and long-term bonds and suppressing yields. After the news was announced, the US dollar weakened, long-term bond yields weakened, gold strengthened, and risk markets, especially high-beta asset yields, rose. This is considered an "event positive," and whether it can turn into policy positive remains to be watched. 1. Short-term increase in bond purchases is a way to release marginal liquidity for risk markets. Although different from conventional QE, it benefits risk sub-assets. However, this is only a single event boost, considering the huge scale of U.S. Treasury bonds. Raising a single repurchase from 2 billion to 4 billion is still just a drop in the bucket. The key issue here is whether the Treasury Department considers the 5.3% 30-year Treasury yield a sensitive red line, and that is the greatest significance of this matter. If the 30-year long-term bond yield continues to trigger this rule after reaching 5.3%, it will shift from an event-driven positive to a policy benefit, which is the most direct positive for the financial market. 3. If the government expands long-term bond buybacks + reduces long-term bond issuance + increases Bills financing in the future, it can create medium- to long-term liquidity benefits. So the 30-year long-term bond will be observed going forward

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