Post

Cato_KT
Cato_KT
Influential Creator
Show original
本周重点关注的四大美国零售巨头的财报,家得宝、劳氏、塔吉特与沃尔玛,现在已经公布了三家,仅剩一个沃尔玛 家得宝+劳氏,美国家居建材零售巨头,代表美国大额可选消费情况, 塔吉特+沃尔玛,美国综合零售巨头,代表美国日常消费, 截止目前,家得宝与劳氏财报明显可以看出美国大额可选消费进入降温期,虽然没有出现明显的断崖式下跌,但是已经明显疲软 不过塔吉特的财报表现不错,这就不能简单直接判断美国消费强弱问题,而是出现了结构性废话,大额可选消费走弱,日常消费依旧较强 不过这个预期现在还不能到100%,毕竟沃尔玛的财报才更具备日常消费代表性,财报将会于明天美股盘前公布,所以美国日常消费是否走弱还是保持韧性,现在还有一定的风险 最坏预期,一旦沃尔玛财报出现消费走弱信号,叠加劳氏与家得宝财报,消费经济信号出现,接下来市场很有可能会抢跑滞胀预期,这是需要警惕的宏观风险点,而一旦风险形成,很有可能对冲掉贝森特救市带来的利好!#海力士40万亿回购,扩产与回报如何平衡
Cato_KT
Cato_KT
What signal does US Treasury Secretary Yellen's sudden "market rescue" mean for the market? In this macro-sensitive phase, Yellen's market rescue seems so "coincidental"
What signal does U.S. Treasury Secretary Becent's sudden "rescue" signal signal for the market? During this sensitive macroeconomic period, Becent's rescue seems like such a "coincidence." Just now, the U.S. Treasury officially announced that starting September 9, 2026, it will expand the scale of single bond purchases, increasing from the original $2 billion to even $4 billion. This policy covers 10-, 20-, and 30-year Treasuries. Simply put, the Treasury is increasing the scale of single bond purchases, adjusting the market supply of long-term medium- and long-term bonds and suppressing yields. After the news was announced, the US dollar weakened, long-term bond yields weakened, gold strengthened, and risk markets, especially high-beta asset yields, rose. This is considered an "event positive," and whether it can turn into policy positive remains to be watched. 1. Short-term increase in bond purchases is a way to release marginal liquidity for risk markets. Although different from conventional QE, it benefits risk sub-assets. However, this is only a single event boost, considering the huge scale of U.S. Treasury bonds. Raising a single repurchase from 2 billion to 4 billion is still just a drop in the bucket. The key issue here is whether the Treasury Department considers the 5.3% 30-year Treasury yield a sensitive red line, and that is the greatest significance of this matter. If the 30-year long-term bond yield continues to trigger this rule after reaching 5.3%, it will shift from an event-driven positive to a policy benefit, which is the most direct positive for the financial market. 3. If the government expands long-term bond buybacks + reduces long-term bond issuance + increases Bills financing in the future, it can create medium- to long-term liquidity benefits. So the 30-year long-term bond will be observed going forward

Disclaimer: OKX Orbit content is provided for informational purposes only. Learn more

Replies

No comments yet. Be the first to reply!