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Crypture 科噗球
Crypture 科噗球
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昨天美股下跌,看大家都在討論公債殖利率創高,所以對股市造成衝擊,做為總經菜雞的我也是和 AI 好好討論了一番,這邊做個筆記。 目前債券在漲的是長天期,30 年期殖利率衝到5.31 ~ 5.34%,創19年新高,但同時短天期的 2 年期殖利率其實是下跌的,跌了 0.12%,10 年期只小漲 0.05%,長天期在漲、短天期在跌,方向不一樣。 用兩條線在看這件事:一條看「10年期減2年期」的利差變化(代表短天期主導),這條打出偏多頭的分數 +1.2;另一條線看「2年期減30年期」的利差變化(代表長天期主導),這條打出偏空頭的分數 -1.2。這兩個分數正負剛好互相抵銷,加起來幾乎等於沒訊號,所以目前不是殖利率全面上升在壓垮股市。 另外值得注意的是,期限溢酬(可以理解成投資人願意多要求的一點利息,作為把錢綁住更久、承擔更多不確定性的補償),以及市場對未來通膨的預期。這兩個數值近 4 週下來幾乎都沒變動,代表這波長天期利率上漲,不是因為市場突然擔心通膨要飆、或要求更高的長期補償。 $QQQ
Crypture 科噗球
Crypture 科噗球
The current AI race is like fishing for big fish; if you pull the line too quickly out of impatience, it will break, but if you pull slowly, everyone can enjoy a good meal 😋 The key point now, besides who can first turn AI spending into scalable operating profit, is that AI revenue is highly concentrated in companies like OpenAI and Anthropic. Big companies sell computing power to AI companies, and AI companies then buy computing power back, creating a spiral that can go up or down. From Nvidia's recent guarantee for the OpenAI project being revised down from 250 billion to 120 billion, it’s clear that some are starting to actively control risk. Nvidia, as the biggest beneficiary of this AI wave, is beginning to hit the brakes. This spiral has started to self-regulate. Profit growth is fundamental, but now we must also magnify the quality of growth. Only companies that can turn AI spending into stable profits can continue to survive. $NVDA $ANTHROPIC $OPENAI

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