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Weak consumption + energy rebound, stagflation concerns are rising, US economic risks drag down risk assets The current macro environment is still relatively unfavorable for risk assets overall, as I mentioned in this week's macro framework with basically consistent expectations Last week's unexpectedly weak consumption data itself triggered concerns about an economic slowdown, and crude oil breaking and holding above $90 at this time has increased inflation expectations. The combination of the two leads to light stagflation expectations, which is the current macro pain point To note, on the consumption side, pay attention to the earnings reports of several major US consumer giants: Home Depot on Tuesday this week, Target and Lowe's on Wednesday, Walmart on Thursday. Currently, Home Depot's earnings report shows that the US consumer economy is downgrading; although not crashing, the risks are gradually expanding Next, this week's real estate data + initial jobless claims + PMI + corporate consumption data, if combined with subsequent earnings reports from Target, Lowe's, and Walmart also showing consumption downgrade, then the risk expectation of US economic weakening or even crashing greatly increases. If energy prices remain above 90 this week, light stagflation expectations will inevitably become the main market focus One more point to note here: theoretically, economic weakening would suppress the September rate hike signal, but if it turns from weakening to crashing, with cliff-like consumption economic data accompanied by high oil prices, then even if the rate hike signal is weakened, it is still unfavorable for risk markets especially #财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？