Mi'er, can your stock curse be broken?
#财报观察员:小米即将发布财报,你更看好哪条业务线?
The market expects revenue to be about ¥111 billion to ¥127.1 billion. Whether it can hold above ¥100 billion is not very important; what matters is whether the automotive segment can withstand the pressure.
Although monthly deliveries exceeded 30,000 consecutively in Q2, deliveries do not equal improved profitability. The main focus is whether the automotive gross margin can stabilize, whether operating losses can narrow, and whether the annual target of 550,000 vehicles can be achieved.
In the smartphone industry, Q1 saw a year-on-year decline of 19.2%, but the average selling price rose to ¥1,310, a record high. In Q2, rather than focusing on shipment volume, it is better to see if premiumization can continue to support ASP and gross margin.
AIoT and internet services are Xiaomi’s profit ballast. If IoT gross margin and internet advertising revenue continue to remain resilient, they can buffer the pressure from rising smartphone costs and automotive investments.
The most likely combination in the earnings report is: revenue recovery, but profits still under pressure.
Xiaomi has never lacked impressive data in the past. The real "stock curse" lies in the market often trading growth in advance, then after the earnings report lands, instead questioning profits and guidance.
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