Post

The movement of the US stock market after opening gave the market a clear answer. Although this week's inflation and retail data weakened the case for a rate hike in September, it is still far from enough to reverse the situation. Good news: the US stock market did not move towards defensive trading due to recession or stagflation concerns. Bad news: the probability of a rate hike in September remains stuck at 30%, which is not enough to support risk markets. After the US market opened, the CME's probability of a September rate hike returned to 30%, with the dollar and bond markets stopping their decline and rebounding. Clearly, the market's confidence in no rate hike in September is still insufficient. The core factor is that energy prices are still relatively high. If energy prices rise further, causing inflation to rebound in August, and tonight's retail data shows economic acceleration weakening, it will turn into stagflation. Therefore, energy prices are the key factor. Secondly, the July PCE data on August 26, as well as the August employment and inflation data in September, have not yet been released. The market still lacks confidence in Walsh's hawkish policy. To reverse the situation, it depends on whether subsequent data further consolidates the current combination of weakening inflation, initial employment risks, and economic slowdown. With the release of retail data, this week's macroeconomic theme ends. Next, the market will focus on the impact of the US-Iran situation and energy price trends! Note: The current US-Iran situation is not optimistic. The second half and the close of the US stock market may see temporary risk aversion. #CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大