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DeluDream
DeluDream
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投资大爆炸,亿元赌局,本质茅台与科技股碰撞 段永平敢拿1个亿赌茅台,但斌却没接。 段永平的逻辑很简单: 茅台是中国最优秀的企业之一,值得长期持有,甚至敢拿1亿元和国内基金比收益。 但斌的观点则更有意思: 茅台依然是核心资产,但投资不能只看过去。 进入AI时代,全球正在不断诞生新的高成长赛道。与其死守传统核心资产,不如把视野放到全球,寻找下一批真正具备长期增长能力的公司。 所以这不是“茅台好不好”的问题。 时代在变,产业在变,投资者也应该不断突破自己的舒适圈。 真正的答案或许不在于茅台能不能赢,而在于你愿不愿意为一门看得懂的生意,等上十年,不管是茅台,还是科技股。 时间是伟大公司的朋友,平庸公司的敌人。国家队已用脚投票。
DeluDream
DeluDream
It's exploded, totally messed up, profits are declining, and the national team has even pulled out. Last night, Kweichow Moutai's half-year report was released, and something feels off. The overall performance was significantly below expectations. Revenue for the first half of the year was about ¥90.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of only 1.47%; net profit excluding non-recurring items was about ¥44.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.04%. Looking at the second quarter alone, the pressure is even more obvious: Revenue dropped about 9.2% year-on-year, net profit excluding non-recurring items fell about 6.88%, roughly 10% lower than previous institutional expectations. This is no longer just a simple "slowdown in growth," but core profits have started to show negative growth. But I think there are actually a few changes in Moutai's financial report that are truly worth paying attention to: First, direct sales are getting stronger while distributors are weakening. In the first half, Moutai's direct sales revenue was about ¥51.9 billion, accounting for more than half of total revenue. Previously relying on a large distributor system, it is now accelerating the shift to direct sales and the consumer end. When the industry was booming, the distributor system helped expand the market; but as the industry enters an adjustment period, these intermediaries have become costs and risks. So what Moutai is doing now is essentially reorganizing its sales system. Second, the cash flow is impressively strong. Net cash flow from operating activities was about ¥70.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of over 400%. The cash on hand has also reached about ¥184.8 billion. They can still earn over ¥80 billion a year, and have this much cash sitting idle. My simple view: Don't just let the money lie in the account.

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