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DeluDream
DeluDream
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要么提高分红,要么回购股票,反正应该想办法把真金白银还给股东。 当然,茅台这些年分红本来就不低,核心原因也很好理解——茅台集团持有上市公司约60%的股份。 分红越多,大股东拿到的现金也越多。 所以相比回购,分红显然更符合大股东的现金流需求。 第三,也是我觉得最值得注意的一张图:国家队退出。 从这次十大流通股东名单来看,中央汇金和中国证券金融股份有限公司已经不再出现。 至于是不是全部清仓、具体减持路径,还需要结合完整持仓数据进一步确认。 但至少从股东结构来看,信号已经非常明确: 茅台正在经历一轮从渠道、利润到股东结构的全面变化。 白酒黄金时代已经过去。 现在真正决定茅台未来估值的,可能不再是“还能涨多少”,而是:增速放缓以后,它还能不能持续给股东创造足够稳定的现金回报。
DeluDream
DeluDream
It's exploded, totally messed up, profits are declining, and the national team has even pulled out. Last night, Kweichow Moutai's half-year report was released, and something feels off. The overall performance was significantly below expectations. Revenue for the first half of the year was about ¥90.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of only 1.47%; net profit excluding non-recurring items was about ¥44.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.04%. Looking at the second quarter alone, the pressure is even more obvious: Revenue dropped about 9.2% year-on-year, net profit excluding non-recurring items fell about 6.88%, roughly 10% lower than previous institutional expectations. This is no longer just a simple "slowdown in growth," but core profits have started to show negative growth. But I think there are actually a few changes in Moutai's financial report that are truly worth paying attention to: First, direct sales are getting stronger while distributors are weakening. In the first half, Moutai's direct sales revenue was about ¥51.9 billion, accounting for more than half of total revenue. Previously relying on a large distributor system, it is now accelerating the shift to direct sales and the consumer end. When the industry was booming, the distributor system helped expand the market; but as the industry enters an adjustment period, these intermediaries have become costs and risks. So what Moutai is doing now is essentially reorganizing its sales system. Second, the cash flow is impressively strong. Net cash flow from operating activities was about ¥70.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of over 400%. The cash on hand has also reached about ¥184.8 billion. They can still earn over ¥80 billion a year, and have this much cash sitting idle. My simple view: Don't just let the money lie in the account.

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