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TraderS | 缺德道人
TraderS | 缺德道人
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$SPCX 今天股价下跌除了昨天说的那些原因之外可能是Cursor完成交割导致的 虽然收购Cursor是6月的故事,但在具体操作中隐藏着一个细节:换股比例是按交割前七个交易日的成交量加权均价折算 那么这就是此前说过的特斯拉—SpaceX合并的教科书式预演 拉高SpaceX股价,压低收购方股价是对SpaceX/马斯克本人最有利的方式。虽然他不能直接操控股价,但他很显然通过控制利好释放精准的绕开了SEC监管达成了目的 今天跌到135还有两个原因: 8月20日有3.19亿股获得转让资格,资金在周末前提前降低风险。 今天是周度期权到期日,135美元既是IPO价,也是期权最大痛点附近。跌破139–140以后,Call对冲撤出和Put对冲可能放大下跌;到135附近,Put止盈、对冲回补以及IPO价买盘又共同促成反弹。 后续价格: 重新站上139.5–140:说明135承接有效 收复141.29,并进一步站稳143–145:今天才更像一次卖事实洗盘 收在135–139:结构仍偏弱,下周解锁前大概率再次测试135 收盘跌破135且反抽不回:依次看132.5、130
TraderS | 缺德道人
TraderS | 缺德道人
First, technically speaking, $SPCX surged too much yesterday, so today's pullback is part of a cleanup. Secondly, the previously supportive bullish news has also been diluted. For example, Musk initially said Grok4.6 was very strong, but then DeepseekV4PRO was released shortly after, kicking it off before it even warmed up. This directly impacts the expected rental income from computing power leasing. For example, the internal speech released on August 11 claiming AI accounts for 99% of SpaceX's value has been highly controversial, with some considering it a distraction from core business. This directly hits investors attracted by Starship, Starlink, and defense contracts. Also, the so-called Wall Street report claiming 300 billion in revenue is full of loopholes meant to hype the stock price. First, completing 10GW of computing power by year-end is basically impossible. Second, it linearly extrapolates the premium during the current computing power shortage. Moreover, cross-industry hoarding of computing power actually proves Grok itself cannot absorb the computing power. The so-called rapid construction of computing power centers using second-hand Chinese power equipment will inevitably face many difficulties in implementation. Holding 139–140: can still be defined as strong turnover after a breakout Recovering 143–145: indicates today's main action is profit-taking cleanup Closing below 138.7–139: the gains from yesterday's AI PR combo are basically given back, and the next step will likely test the 135 issue price If 135 is also lost: return to the 130–133 range to find support again Only by reclaiming 146.15: can it be considered qualified to resume attacking 150 for $SPCX

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