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Retail data unexpectedly weakened, putting pressure on Trump! #CPI与PPI同步降温, rate hike divergence widens. Retail data released, overall data unexpectedly weakened. Combined with this week's CPI + PPI data, it can be concluded that US economic growth is accelerating and weakening, with inflation cooling both among consumers and businesses, further damaging the probability of a September rate hike. This data is currently considered positive, nominally reducing the probability of a rate hike in September, which is negative for the dollar, positive for gold, lower US Treasury yields, and positive for risk assets. It is important to note that, as I mentioned earlier, this data carries risks: Economic slowdown or stagflation recession is just one step away. Currently, energy prices have dropped significantly compared to previous months, and inflation data has slowed, so stagflation expectations have not appeared directly. However, due to weak retail data, if energy prices rebound and inflationary pressure increases, stagflation expectations will emerge, and recession expectations will also emerge. Therefore, the pressure on the U.S. economy has shifted to Trump. If Trump cannot resolve the Iran issue, energy prices will remain high or even continue to rise. So Trump's first headache is whether the U.S. economy can stabilize the three key markets—stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange—which is actually friendly to Iran. The probability of a rate hike in September is further weakened: CME shows the probability of a rate hike in September has dropped to 28.8%, with no significant drop, mainly because Wash previously emphasized that the Fed is more focused on inflation than growth. Therefore, tonight's retail data needs to be further evaluated to see if it can further raise the rate by 9