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挖矿的小羊
挖矿的小羊
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8月10日到8月13日,四天之内,三笔钱。 总额超过5470亿美元。 AI芯片赛道上的三巨头——英伟达、英特尔、AMD——在一周之内,各自完成了一次史无前例的融资动作。 如果你还在用“谁家GPU跑分高”来判断谁赢——你已经out了。 这场战争的第四大核心竞争力,已经浮出水面: 借钱的能力。 先把时间线拉一遍。 8月10日,英伟达。 黄仁勋宣布,联手贝莱德、黑石、高盛、阿波罗、KKR、博枫六家华尔街顶级金融机构,建立5000亿美元算力融资平台。 不花自己一分钱——撬动华尔街的第三方资本,帮客户买英伟达的芯片。 黄仁勋的原话是:“芯片首次成为一种具备投资价值的资产类别。” 这是金融杠杆的极致。 8月11日,英特尔。 宣布200亿美元普通股增发,发行价95美元/股,共发行2.105亿股,净筹资约197亿美元。 注意几个细节: 认购需求突破1000亿美元,超额认购超过6倍。 英特尔股价年内涨了164%,过去12个月涨了接近400%。 趁估值高点暴力融资——代价是稀释现有股东。 这是英特尔1971年上市以来最大单次股权融资。 8月13日,AMD。 完成47.5亿美元高级无担保债券发行,分四档:3年期12.5亿(利率4.6%)、5年期15亿(5.0%)、7年期10亿(5.25%)、10年期10亿(5.5%)。 10年期最终利差较美国国债高90个基点,比初始指引收窄了25个基点。 超额认购,市场买账。 这是AMD历史上最大规模的美元债券发行。 三家公司,三种融资路径,同一个目标——在AI万亿美元资本开支周期中不被甩下桌。 来,对比一下三张牌: 英伟达打的是“平台牌”。 自己不掏钱,撬动华尔街5000亿。帮客户融资,客户拿钱买英伟达芯片。芯片变成资产,资产可以证券化,证券化之后还能再融资。 黄仁勋把芯片做成了金融产品。 这不是卖芯片,这是卖一个“算力资产包”。 英特尔打的是“股权牌”。 趁股价历史高位,发新股换现金。2.1亿股,每股95美元,稀释现有股东,但拿到197亿真金白银。 用股权换时间——分析师的原话。 赌的是:这笔钱砸下去,AI业务能跑出比稀释更大的回报。 AMD打的是“债权牌”。 不稀释股权,但增加负债。四档债券,利率4.6%到5.5%,锁定长期资金。 截至6月末,AMD账面现金加短期投资还有131亿美元,总长期债务32亿美元。 不缺钱,但还是要借。 为什么? 因为对手在借钱,你不借,你就落后。 以前我们比的是谁家GPU跑分高。 现在比的是谁家CFO能借到更便宜的钱。 高盛的数据显示,2026年全球AI相关投资将达到约1万亿美元。五大云巨头2026年资本开支预计约8000亿美元,2027年进一步升至约1.16万亿美元。 这是一场万亿美元级别的资本消耗战。 拼的不是技术,拼的是谁能持续输血。 国际清算银行已经警告:五大云服务商2025至2026年AI相关资本开支将超过1万亿美元,相关承诺已经超过盈利和自由现金流,部分公司被迫通过发债融资。 谷歌已经用自由现金流-59亿证明了——AI烧钱的速度,比印钱还快。 $AMD $INTC $NVDA #AMD完成历史最大美元债发行:融资47.5亿美元
挖矿的小羊
挖矿的小羊
The Bank of Korea hasn't touched gold in 13 years. The last time they bought gold was in 2013, when they purchased 20 tons. Later, gold prices fell from 1600 to 1180, probably leaving a psychological scar on the Koreans. After 13 years, they're back. In Q2, they bought 679,800 shares of the SPDR Gold ETF, with holdings valued at $250 million. Bank of Korea officials even said, "We are considering using ETFs as one of the channels to purchase gold." Even more aggressively—they are not only buying ETFs but also planning to directly procure domestically produced Korean gold bars. In the Bank of Korea's foreign exchange reserves, USD assets account for 69.5%, while gold is only 1.1%. This is not allocation; this is running naked. What about global central banks? In Q2, they net purchased 289 tons of gold, setting a record high for the same period. Now let's look at BTC. Bitcoin's latest price is $63,362, nearly 50% down from the $126,080 peak reached last October. Gold? It’s fluctuating around $4,380. LBMA surveys show analysts' median year-end gold price forecast is $4,500. The most optimistic analysts see $7,150. One has halved from its peak, the other remains steady and is still rising. So here’s the question— If you could only allocate one long-term safe-haven asset now, would it be gold or BTC? First, let's be clear about one thing. Bitcoin is not "digital gold," at least not yet. At the beginning of this year, the 90-day correlation between BTC and gold was -0.9—one goes up, the other down, each on its own path. Now? The correlation has turned positive to +0.7. What does this mean? It means the market is starting to view BTC as a safe-haven asset. But a positive correlation doesn't inherently mean bullishness—both assets can rise or fall together. And gold's safe-haven status? It has never truly been questioned. With the Iran conflict escalating, gold ETFs saw $6.2 billion inflows in a single week. Central banks have been net buyers of gold for years. The more geopolitical chaos, the more sovereign funds flock to gold. What about BTC? In May, Bitcoin ETFs saw $8.9 billion outflows, while central banks bought 41 tons of gold in the same period. Institutions are exiting Bitcoin; sovereign wealth funds are increasing gold holdings. Gold is "central bank money," BTC is "player money." Central bank money—cost-insensitive, ignoring candlesticks, indifferent to short-term volatility. Their gold allocation is measured in decades. Player money—watching macro, liquidity, and cutting positions as soon as risk models trigger. In the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war, BTC fell with US stocks. In the 2026 US-Iran conflict, BTC again fell with US stocks. What "digital gold"? Just the best marketing slogan in a bull market. Does that mean BTC is worthless? Of course not. Over a 10-year horizon, BTC's returns are 65 times that of gold. A 213-fold return—only BTC can achieve that in this era. So my allocation philosophy is simple: Gold for defense, BTC for offense. Allocate gold—because central banks are buying, because geopolitical risks are rising, because it is the true last line of defense. With 69.5% of Korea's foreign reserves in USD, they are getting nervous. Are you? Allocate BTC—because if you only allocate gold, you miss the greatest asymmetric investment opportunity of this era. If you didn't buy when BTC dropped 50%, will you chase it at $120,000? Three practical points: First, don't treat BTC like gold. The volatility scales are incomparable. A 1% drop in gold in a day is a "flash crash," a 5% drop in BTC in a day is a "normal correction." Second, don't treat gold like BTC for speculation. Gold's annualized volatility is under 20%; expecting it to double your money is wishful thinking. Third, the Bank of Korea's $250 million purchase is not large in scale but sends a very strong signal. After 13 years without touching gold, they're back. What do you think they're afraid of? Gold is the reason you can sleep well at night. BTC is the reason you won't need to sleep ten years from now. $BTC $XAU $XAUT #黄金维持高位,韩国央行重返市场

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