SanDisk surged 600 billion overnight, but I only care about one thing: Can this pie be eaten by 2028?
On August 13, SanDisk held an investor day.
This was not an ordinary earnings call; it was the most important strategic communication since the company spun off from Western Digital.
Why is it important? Because SanDisk's stock price has dropped nearly half from its all-time high of $2354 in June.
The market is asking one question: How much longer can the AI storage story be told?
SanDisk's answer left Wall Street stunned.
Let's look at the numbers:
From fiscal years 2028 to 2030, revenue is expected to maintain mid-to-high double-digit growth.
Non-GAAP gross margin will stay around 80%.
Non-GAAP operating margin about 75%.
Adjusted free cash flow margin about 50%.
Operating expenses only account for 5% of revenue.
Even more impressive—after completing business investments, 100% of excess cash will be returned to shareholders.
Goldman Sachs immediately set a $2200 price target, saying it could rise another 44%.
A storage chip company aiming for an 80% gross margin.
Do you know Apple's gross margin? Around 46%.
NVIDIA's gross margin is just over 70%.
SanDisk says: I want to reach 80%.
But wait—no matter how beautifully the story is told or how big the pie is drawn, whether you can actually eat it is another matter.
SanDisk itself knows what the market is worried about.
The storage industry has a notorious characteristic: extreme cyclicality.
Prices skyrocket when up, and crash beyond recognition when down.
In the past year, SanDisk's stock price soared from about $40 to over $2300, then plunged nearly half again.
Who dares to hold long-term on such a roller coaster?
So this time SanDisk came up with a big move—the NBM long-term customer agreement.
Simply put: customers lock in orders in advance, SanDisk locks in capacity in advance, and everyone smooths out the cycle together.
Currently, SanDisk has signed agreements with 8 core customers, including 3 leading large-scale US cloud service providers.
These agreements cover about 50% of storage capacity for fiscal year 2027 and two-thirds of capacity for fiscal year 2028.
The total contract value is about $94 billion.
Even at the contract floor price, the gross margin can reach 80%.
This is the confidence behind SanDisk's bold 80% gross margin claim—two-thirds of capacity and prices are already locked in.
Now on the technology side.
SanDisk is betting on a new technology called HBF (High Bandwidth Flash).
Simply put, this technology combines the high-speed read/write capability of high bandwidth memory with the large capacity advantage of traditional flash.
It specifically addresses the memory bottleneck during AI inference.
In early August, SanDisk and SK Hynix jointly released the first standard specification for HBF.
The first HBF storage chip has completed tape-out, and initial samples are expected to be delivered next year.
This is the next battlefield for AI storage.
Goldman Sachs said the HBF technology roadmap brings "huge upside potential" to SanDisk.
But—I have to say a "but."
Goldman Sachs itself admits: whether the NBM agreement can truly smooth industry cycles still needs time to verify.
The agreement is signed, but will customers default? Can the price floor hold? What if market demand reverses?
These are all question marks.
SanDisk's stock price has already risen over 600% this year.
Any slight disturbance could trigger a 30% correction.
Finally, some honest words—
This investor day gave the market three things:
First, a beautiful long-term story (80% gross margin, 100% cash return).
Second, a credible implementation mechanism (NBM agreements locking two-thirds of capacity).
Third, a future growth engine (HBF technology).
But a story is still just a story, and a pie is still just a pie.
The only truly worth tracking are three indicators:
NBM agreement fulfillment rate—whether customers really purchase as promised.
HBF commercialization progress—whether samples can be delivered on time next year.
NAND market supply and demand changes—whether the cycle is truly smoothed.
The first batch of data for these three answers won't be available until 2027 at the earliest.
Before then, all the big ups and downs are just the market swimming in emotions.
One last sentence:
SanDisk has drawn a pie that can only be realized in 2028.
Before then, you need to think clearly—
Are you someone who believes in this story,
Or someone who waits until the pie is ripe to eat?
$SNDK$SKHYNIX$SKHY#闪迪投资者日后，长期目标成焦点
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