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July PPI data overall fell short of expectations, especially with the previous core PPI monthly rate revised upward, making the core PPI monthly rate of 0.2% appear even more moderate Referring to the previous text, this is the best data combination for tonight—nominal below 0.1%, core stable at 0.2% and below the previous value, combined with last night's July CPI data, meaning CPI+PPI, inflation pressure on both consumers and businesses is cooling Market reaction: CME swap rate dropped to 32.1%, a new low, but has not fallen below the 30% safety threshold, so risk still remains Data is bullish for gold, bearish for the dollar; bond yields for 1-year, 2-year, 10-year, and 30-year all fell collectively, with the 1-year short bond yield dropping 0.75%, 2-year yield down 0.5%, indicating short-term inflation pressure is easing and high interest rate pressure is easing Positive for risk assets, U.S. stocks accelerated gains in pre-market, QQQ at 724 pre-market, VIX index declined, and tonight the U.S. stock market is expected to continue the upward momentum in the first half Note that the current CME swap rate still shows a 32.1% probability of a September rate hike, meaning the chance of a September hike has not been completely dismissed; the second half of tonight's U.S. stock market may see inflation concerns re-emerge similar to early yesterday morning. Next, we need to watch whether tomorrow's retail data weakens and further suppresses the September rate hike probability. Only if the probability falls below 30%, or even below 25%, will it officially enter a safe zone! #7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温