Post

0xkevin00
0xkevin00
Influential Creator
Show original
为什么牛市最危险的不是暴跌,而是暴跌后的反弹 杠杆盘是分层的,爆仓是分批的,反弹是给你逃命的,不是给你抄底的 逻辑很简单,杠杆本身就是分档次的:最前面的 2 倍、3 倍激进盘,也有相对谨慎的1.5 倍稳健盘,还有大量死扛不止损、硬补保证金的套牢盘 第一波暴跌先打爆杠杆,就像韩国这轮,券商不计成本砸盘,砸完抄底资金进场拉升 但这根本不是见底,只要再跌一点点,又会触发下一批杠杆账户的平仓线,开启新一轮的强制平仓砸盘 引用
0xkevin00
0xkevin00
Why hasn't South Korea started a strong rebound after clearing the gap? Looking at history as a mirror, let's look at what happened during the 2015 A-share market bull market The bull market in the first half of 2015 followed by the stock market crash in the second half. The crash wasn't a one-time crash, but was gradually completed through three rounds of stampedes The first round was from June to early July, when regulators cleaned up off-exchange margin financing. The high-multiples financing of 10x and 8x was the first to crash, with the index plunging from 5178 points all the way to 3373 points, and within three months, there were 16 limit-down hits for thousands of stocks Then, on July 9, the central bank granted unlimited refinancing to CSRC companies, and relevant authorities investigated malicious short selling. That day, the Shanghai Composite Index surged 5.76%, with over 1,200 stocks hitting the daily limit, and all 194 tradable ChiNext stocks hitting the daily limit So the market began to rebound Then I dodged the first crash and rushed in to buy the bottom, landing halfway up the mountain. Does it look like what's happening now? On August 18, the second round of sharp declines began, with the Shanghai Composite Index plunging 6.15%. On August 24, it broke through the July low, and on August 26, it hit a new low of 2850.71. It fell from 4000 to 2850, a decline of about 29%, while the ChiNext dropped 32%. Trusts and on-exchange financing projects were forcibly liquidated in this round. The CSRC later confirmed that the margin financing balance dropped from 2.2 trillion yuan to about 960 billion yuan, and 60% of off-exchange financing was cleared. Of course, the bottom has begun to rebound again From the end of the year to the beginning of 2016, there was a third round of circuit breaker sell-offs. The circuit breaker mechanism was implemented on January 4, 2016, triggered twice on January 4 and January 7, causing the Shanghai Composite to drop about 26% over four trading days, wiping out 8 trillion in market value As a result, the circuit breaker mechanism was urgently suspended on January 8 There were three full rounds of crashes, two seemingly legitimate rebounds, each time with people calling for a bottom, and every time a large crowd rushed in to buy in, ultimately buying halfway up the mountain

Disclaimer: OKX Orbit content is provided for informational purposes only. Learn more

Replies

No comments yet. Be the first to reply!