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#7月CPI符合预期，9月还会加息吗？ Data Release: US July CPI year-over-year 3.4%, core CPI year-over-year 2.5%, month-over-month all precisely hit market expectations, no unexpected rebound nor surprise cooling, a neutral result. After the CPI release, CME September rate hike probability slightly fell from 48% to 45%, maintaining a 55% rate, the suspense remains unresolved, only the urgency to hike rates has decreased, the option to raise rates is not closed. 1. What key signals does this CPI release convey? 1) Inflation slightly receded but still far from the 2% target. Housing components are very sticky, the main drag on inflation; energy prices are at risk of rebounding anytime due to Middle East tensions, so the Fed dares not declare the inflation battle over. 2) Weaker nonfarm payrolls + CPI meeting expectations, doubly weakening the motivation for a September rate hike. Employment data weakening combined with inflation not rebounding beyond expectations reduces the hawkish case for an immediate hike. However, Fed officials recently stated consistently: single-month data does not represent a trend, policy will not be locked in by one expected data release. 3) Market pricing: high probability of waiting in September, pushing rate hikes to October/December. Current mainstream baseline scenario: no move in September, keeping the rate hike option; if inflation rebounds again in August, the probability of hikes in Q4 will rise quickly. 2. Three major future scenarios Scenario ①: Baseline (highest probability) | Pause rate hikes in September, maintain hawkish rhetoric CPI + nonfarm combination insufficient to trigger immediate hike. Fed keeps rates unchanged in September, hawkish tone, will not close the door on future hikes. • Gold: oscillating in a high range, 4360-4480 box, geopolitical risk continues to support, beware of profit-taking at highs causing pullbacks. #CPIInLineFedWatch #AIInfraEarningsWatch #Gold4400HavenBid