Postingan

The unresolved Hormuz talks now sit at the intersection of security guarantees and economic leverage. Iran and Oman are discussing safe passage, but Tehran’s linkage of reopening to sanctions relief and war compensation leaves a substantial gap with Washington, compounded by the Aug 11 interception of a cargo ship the U.S. said tried to breach its blockade of Iranian ports. With Brent briefly nearing $90/bbl, the key issue is no longer diplomatic contact alone. My read is that markets need enforceable minimum terms on transit, sanctions and the blockade before any easing of the risk premium can look durable. Not advice, just analysis. #HormuzPressureRises