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纯衍生品驱动的上涨(空头挤压、多头加杠杆)往往短暂、容易快速回撤。
现货资金驱动意味着有真实资金承接,行情更扎实、可持续性更高。空头挤压可能点燃行情,但后续能否延续,关键看 ETF 和现货买盘是否持续跟进。
后续观察重点通常是:
ETF 资金是否持续净流入。
杠杆是否快速升温。
价格接近或突破 90k 时,期权对冲流量如何变化。
QCP: The current Bitcoin rally is driven more by spot funds, with $90,000 becoming an important options level
Wu reported that QCP Capital stated Bitcoin broke through the consolidation range of $82,500–$85,700 over the past week, rising to $86,913 at one point, up 14.6% from the low on September 15. The annualized funding rate for BTC perpetual contracts is about 5.4%, and QCP believes this rally is driven more by spot capital rather than leverage. Meanwhile, gold fell 8.5% in September, while BTC rose about 12%, which they believe reflects a trend driven jointly by capital inflows, regulatory catalysts, and technical improvements. The US spot BTC ETFs saw inflows of about $3.5 billion and $2.6 billion in August and September, respectively. In the options market, some clients cumulatively sold over 4,000 call options expiring on October 30 with a strike price of $90,000, with a nominal value of about $346 million, and shifted to buying options with the same strike price expiring on November 27. QCP views $82,500 as the current support level and $87,400 as the September high and a key resistance on the way to $90,000.
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