🪐 Legal theater, physical risk Trump’s letter reads like a de-escalation headline, but the shipping lane story says something less clean. When the language says “war is over” while naval pressure and tanker seizures still linger, markets don’t get certainty — they get a fog bank. ⚖️ That’s why I think the real trade here is not the announcement, it’s the credibility gap. If the Strait of Hormuz stays tense, energy keeps a geopolitical premium, and anything tied to inflation or risk appetite can feel the shock through the system. The bullish case is simple: if the corridor truly stabilizes, the market will rip the risk premium out fast. The bearish case feels more convincing to me: legal posturing plus continued enforcement usually means more chop, not less, and chop is where leverage gets exposed. 👁️‍🗨️ The sharpest takeaway: peace declared from a podium is cheap; peace confirmed by shipping flows is what actually matters. #Geopolitics #EnergyMarkets #BTC