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September 14–20 Global Macro Guidance: End of Rate Hikes! US and Japanese central banks make consecutive decisions, global liquidity faces a real stress test. This week's macro logic chain: high oil prices → sticky inflation → Fed rate hikes → BOJ rate hikes → US-Japan interest rate spread narrows → Interest rate differential arbitrage accelerates position closures → tightening global liquidity → liquidity diversion → risk asset deleveraging and repricing After last week's CPI, the probability of a rate hike in September rose to around 88.5%, and media and markets began to define this week as the first Fed rate hike in 2026. The probability of a BOJ rate hike is also very high, and the market expects further rate hikes! 1. Whether the Fed will raise rates is no longer the main issue; the key is how to explain after the rate hikes! #本周FOMC揭晓, can rate hikes materialize? 1. August CPI data rose 0.3% month-on-month, exceeding the market's 0.2% expectation. After strong employment, inflation lacks sufficient evidence to prove cooling, which is the core reason for the spike in the probability of a rate hike in September. 2. Currently, CME shows an 88.5% chance of rate cuts. As long as the probability is between 80%-90%, it means the market has basically locked in and begun initial pricing. Therefore, besides whether there will be a rate hike, this week's focus is on whether the September dot plot shows the possibility of a second rate hike this year, and how Walsh describes energy inflation and future policy directions. 3. I categorize possible scenarios into three categories: dovish rate hikes, hawkish hikes, and unexpected rate hikes. a. Dovish rate hikes, confirming a 25 basis point hike