Gold at $4,320, are you ready to bottom-fish?
Let's look at the surface first: the more chaotic the geopolitical situation, the more gold falls, leaving retail investors confused.
Over the past week, gold plunged sharply from a high of 4697, plunging 2.8% in a single day on September 1, plunging from 4449 straight to 4324. Today's low was 4282, and it is currently barely surviving near 4320. The US and Iran are taking action, oil prices have soared, global stock markets are trembling—yet gold has deflated like a ball. The structure of major bulls remains unbroken, but short-term bears are fighting fiercely.
First thing: Gold always rises during war? This time, it's really not certain.
The U.S. targeted Iran, but Iran retaliated directly, pushing oil prices to $90 and heightening global geopolitical tensions. Gold should have surged to 5,000, but it fell.
Why?
Because Fed Chair Warsh hawked at Jackson Hole, the probability of a rate hike in September soared to 60-67%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield soared to 4.80%, and the dollar index climbed above 99.7. The war increased inflation expectations, which forced the Fed to raise rates, pushing up the dollar and Treasury yields, and gold was hit hard three times
The second event: From 5500 to 4320, what exactly has gold experienced?
At the beginning of the year, gold was still at 5500+, now it's 4320, down 20%+. In late August, it rebounded to 4697, and the bulls shouted 'push for 5000', but in just one week it was pushed back to 4282.
But you need to see the essence: this is a mid-term correction in a major bull market, not the end of the bull market.
Global central bank gold purchase data in Q2 remains strong, de-dollarization logic remains unchanged, and global debt hits record highs—none of these foundations supporting a long-term bull market for gold have collapsed. The World Gold Council's mid-term target remains at 4500-5500.
The third thing: two key technical signals have emerged.
First signal: Today's low of 4282 is right near the Fibonacci 0.5 retracement level at 4312, which is the bulls' last line of defense.
Second signal: The 4H/1H levels are already oversold, RSI is attempting to rebound from a low level, but the momentum is weak. Currently, the 4320 level is consolidating and digesting; bulls and bears are waiting for ADP and nonfarm payroll data to be announced.
The bullish and bearish showdowns are up to you
On one side:
Central bank gold purchases remain strong, with Q2 data at a historic high
De-dollarization + global debt crisis, long-term logic is strong
Geopolitical conflicts are escalating, and the need for safe-haven assets is real
Today, the key support area between 4310 and 4280 was tested
Strong demand for oversold rebounds, RSI rebounding from low levels
On one side:
Rate hike expectations heat up, probability of a rate hike in September 60-67%
The US dollar index is approaching 100, with 10-year US Treasuries at 4.80%.
Gold quickly retreated from 4700, with bearish momentum still ongoing
If ADP/Nonfarm Payrolls are strong, they could win again
Leveraged bulls are crowded, and the OKX perpetual funding rate remains positive
Resistance above: 4335-4340→ 4360-4370→ 4400→ 4440-4450
Support below: 4310-4280 → 4250-4220
Operational strategy
Short-term players:
If the rebound hits resistance at 4335-4370, you can take a light position, stop loss above 4380, target 4280-4250. If it breaks below 4280, look for 4220.
Contestant for rebound:
You must wait for clear volume recovery above 4335 before considering it, stop loss below 4270, target 4360-4400.
Mid-line players:
Wait until a clear bottom structure forms in the 4250-4280 range (hammer line + volume increase), then set up medium-term long positions. If the above confirms a breakout above 4450-4500, the correction will be considered over.
Gold fell from 5500 to 4320, and the market is teaching you a lesson—
Safe-haven assets also fall; only those with low costs deserve true security.
Is gold at 4320 expensive? Looking at 5500, it's cheap. Looking at the trend, not sure.
Whether 4280 can hold is not about faith, but about the Fed's data sheets.
How much does your gold cost?
At 4320, do you dare to bottom-fish?
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