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At present, there are still many macroeconomic uncertainties in the next two months, but the high volatility caused by uncertainty is not necessarily a bad thing for us, and the long-awaited golden opportunity may very well appear during this period. 1. The uncertainty in the US-Iran situation leads to high oil prices and high inflation expectations, amplifying global inflation and economic risks—this is economic uncertainty. 2. Inflation risks caused by inflation issues have increased the probability of a US rate hike in September. In addition, European countries and Japan have frequently signaled rate hikes or possible hikes. A high interest rate environment is unfavorable for risk assets and imposes certain liquidity constraints. 3. Global government deficit rates continue to hit new highs. This is not the main risk, but combined with the continuous surge in US and Japanese government bond yields, it means government credit risk is accumulating, and the bond market faces significant risks. 4. The Japanese yen is very likely to see a rate hike on September 18. The rate hike itself is not the biggest risk; the market worries that after the hike, the Bank of Japan will continue to signal sustained rate hikes. The narrowing US-Japan interest rate spread could lead to the unwinding of arbitrage trades, liquidity flowing back to Japan, potentially causing financial liquidity to tighten further under high interest rates, which is unfavorable for risk assets. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 5. The US midterm elections, based on history, do not necessarily cause a drop before the election, but returns from the first half to the third quarter tend to weaken gradually, with significantly increased drawdowns and volatility. Although the US stock market is supported by the AI narrative, the AI industry has entered a more rigorous validation phase, and investor sentiment has somewhat contracted. Additionally, referring to September-October