#WalshInflationRisk

🌃 Jackson Hole Preview｜Will Walsh be hawkish or dovish? Tonight at 20:30, the US July PCE data will be released first; Walsh will appear on Friday. Inflation and policy signals may once again influence the US stock market, gold, and crypto markets. #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 Feel free to click the topic to see more related information and join the discussion: Do you think Walsh will send hawkish or dovish signals? 📊 Want to follow the US stock market trends? OKX now offers $SPY, $QQQ, keeping up with the major US stock fluctuations so you don't miss trading opportunities from central bank speeches.

MACRO HAS CHANGED THE SHORT TERM GAME The Jackson Hole message was a clear reminder that the market may have priced in easier monetary policy too quickly. The Fed didn't promise rate cuts. Instead, the focus remains firmly on inflation, employment and financial conditions, leaving the door open to tighter policy if the data demands it. Markets reacted immediately. September rate-hike expectations moved sharply higher, while Treasury yields and the dollar strengthened. That combination creates a difficult environment for crypto. Higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding risk assets. A stronger dollar can also reduce global liquidity available for speculative markets. And when liquidity becomes tighter, the assets with the highest beta usually feel the pressure first. That's why I'm more cautious on altcoins, meme coins and heavily leveraged positions in the short term. But I wouldn't jump from "hawkish Fed" straight to "new bear market." The Fed hasn't actually delivered a rate hike. The next major data points still matter. If inflation remains stubborn and employment stays strong, markets could continue pricing a higher-for-longer environment. If inflation cools and labor-market conditions weaken, rate-hike expectations could reverse just as quickly. For BTC, the immediate priority is defending support and rebuilding momentum rather than chasing another breakout. For ETH, the same principle applies. A bounce from support is encouraging, but it needs follow through before calling the correction finished. So my current view is simple: Short-term: cautious and bearish. Medium-term: waiting for the data. The biggest mistake right now would be treating one macro event as the final verdict. Let the price confirm what the macro is telling us. If buyers can absorb the pressure and reclaim key resistance, the bullish structure can recover. If support keeps breaking while yields and the dollar continue rising, the market may need a deeper reset. For now, bulls need to prove they still have control. #WalshPolicyFramework

Following Jackson Hole, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a strong message that another rate hike remains possible if inflation doesn’t make meaningful progress toward the 2% target. 📈 September rate-hike odds: ~58%, up from ~35% before the speech 📉 $BTC: fell roughly 3%, briefly dropping below $77K 📉 Nasdaq: -0.52% 📉 S&P 500: -0.25% Markets are clearly repricing the path ahead — this marks a significant shift in rate expectations. #WalshInflationRisk #BTCGoldCorrelation

🚨 TONIGHT COULD BE A BIG REPRICING NIGHT FOR BTC Everyone is asking the same question: Will Walsh signal a September rate cut? I think that’s the wrong question. The bigger issue tonight is how the Fed defines the inflation problem — and how much room it really has to ease. #WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest

🚨 TONIGHT COULD BE A BIG REPRICING NIGHT FOR BTC Everyone is asking the same question: Will Walsh signal a September rate cut? I think that’s the wrong question. The bigger issue tonight is how the Fed defines the inflation problem — and how much room it really has to ease. #WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest

🔥 Jackson Hole Annual Meeting — Will Warsh’s Debut Ignite the Market? ⏰ Beijing Time: August 28, 22:00 Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is set to deliver his first keynote speech at Jackson Hole since taking office, putting his views on inflation, interest rates, and future monetary policy firmly in the spotlight. 📊 How the U.S. stock market reacted on previous Jackson Hole days: • 2018: +0.62% • 2019: -2.59% • 2020: +0.17% • 2021: +0.88% • 2022: -3.37% • 2023: +0.67% #WalshPolicyFramework

🚨 TONIGHT COULD BE A BIG REPRICING NIGHT FOR BTC Everyone is asking the same question: Will Walsh signal a September rate cut? I think that’s the wrong question. The bigger issue tonight is how the Fed defines the inflation problem — and how much room it really has to ease. #WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest #WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest

PCE delivered numbers, not direction. Core inflation held at 3.3% YoY and rose 0.2% MoM, while headline PCE came in slightly hotter at 3.7%. Q2 GDP stayed at 1.5% annualized. Sticky inflation, resilient underlying demand, and no clean signal for the Fed. Rate pricing moved, then came back. September hike odds jumped from about 36% to 44% after the release before easing to 36-37%. Odds of at least one hike by year-end remain near 73%. The broader path barely changed. That shifts attention to Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote as Fed Chair, Friday at 10AM. The symposium's theme is "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy." A $300B stablecoin market and the GENIUS Act sit in the backdrop, though the keynote's contents are not yet public. Treasury's decision to at least double the cap on long-end liquidity-support buybacks coincided with renewed demand for inflation and dollar-risk hedges. Through Aug 26, BTC was on track for its best August since 2017. The hedge trade is broadening: · August BTC ETF inflows have topped $3B, on track for the strongest month since October 2025 · Cumulative net inflows are near $54.4B, with net assets around $99B · GLD took in $3.4B in the week ended Aug 21, while GLD and IBIT re-entered the top 10 US ETFs by value traded This is not gold versus bitcoin. Both perceived hedges are being bid as investors reassess inflation, the fiscal outlook and dollar risk. Friday also brings a major BTC options expiry: · About 81,700 BTC options worth $6.44B expire at 08:00 UTC · 44,639 calls versus 37,061 puts; put/call ratio 0.83 · Max pain is near $68K · $75K holds about $236M in call OI, with another $157M at $80K Max pain is not a forecast. It misses hedging, entry costs, off-exchange positions and spot demand. But the expiry and Warsh's speech land six hours apart, with BTC near $79K after being rejected around its 50-week average near $81.1K. PCE is done. Friday is the real test. Which matters more for BTC: Warsh's policy tone or the options expiry? #PCEToJacksonHole #BTCOptionsExpiryTest #GoldVsBTCETFFlows

To be honest, I don’t expect Wash’s speech tonight to create much volatility across crypto or U.S. equities. The main focus of the Jackson Hole meeting is financial innovation, so it’s unlikely we’ll get any clear short-term guidance on whether the Fed will cut rates in September. The reason for holding rates steady is fairly straightforward. While U.S. inflation appears relatively manageable, #WalshPolicyFramework #OpenAIInferenceCostTest #AIShiftsToSoftware

Walsh's first Jackson Hole keynote arrives with the Fed's trade-off unusually exposed: core PCE remains above 2%, yet initial jobless claims have fallen to 203K. With Schmid and Hammack emphasizing inflation risks, the key signal is not a single policy preference but whether Walsh defines a repeatable reaction function. My read is that clarity on how inflation, employment and financial conditions alter policy would matter more than a hawkish or dovish label. A vague framework could leave markets repeatedly repricing the Fed-Treasury boundary on long yields, increasing volatility across the dollar, Treasuries, gold and BTC. Not advice, just analysis. #WalshPolicyFramework

At 10 PM tonight, the global financial circle is all focused on one person Federal Reserve Chair Wash makes his debut as the boss at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting. The current situation, to be honest, is quite tangled: · U.S. Treasury yields won't come down · Inflation is still sticky · The market can't figure out what Wash plans to do Everyone has one big question in mind: What exactly has he seen that makes him willing #WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest