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Cato_KT
Cato_KT
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不得不承认是特朗普任期这两年,正在加速制作一个“大泡沫”时代 高关税+高赤字+高油价+高通胀,长期来看,无异于让这个时代的经济与泡沫风险 后面的十年,要么是不破不立,新时代的开启,要么就是全球经济与金融风险线逐渐适应更大泡沫,增加时代的韧性继续维持 中期来看,当金融与全球经济适应了高油价+高债市收益率+高通胀,会让风险资产逐渐对这些敏感因素脱敏,从而爆发出新的生机 短期来看,特朗普为了维护自己的胜利者身份,继续压制伊朗,甚至在11月3日中期选举之后再次大规模打击伊朗,引发新的地缘风险,但是对高油价+高通胀逐渐适应的风险资产,自此之后很有可能直接逆风加速成长,对我们来说算是好事 只不过,如果真的如此,未来十年,对低风险偏好的小伙伴会非常不友好,因为始终有跟风险线压制着投机情绪,好坏参半吧!#9月FOMC纪要公布,多数官员倾向再加息
Cato_KT
Cato_KT
If you want to prove that you won this US-Iran war? Then just ensure you don't lose militarily and diplomatically! This sentence seems contradictory, but I think it is currently the thing Trump most wants to do: to prove he hasn't lost this war through normalized military friction with Iran plus suppressing crude oil prices by controlling energy supply. So the problem arises: Trump can politically declare victory in the Iran war to everyone he wants to convince, at the cost of the whole world having to endure high oil prices and high inflation. I am willing to call Trump the "Global Bubble Maker"! In the world history years from now, economic crises may have to "thank" Trump for the "outstanding" contributions made during his term #霍尔木兹通航降至两月低位,油价跳涨4%

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