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The probability of a rate hike in October is less than 25%! But the minutes may "betray" the Fed's true intentions The Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes will be released at 2 a.m. tonight. The market has already voted with its feet: the probability of a rate hike in October has dropped from 68.6% a week ago to less than 25%. But there is a detail almost everyone is ignoring— These minutes record the discussions of the committee members at the September 16 meeting. At that time, the September nonfarm payroll data had not yet been released. The data hadn't softened yet, but sentiment had already changed. This is the time lag. September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, while the market expected 90,000. August data was revised down from 162,000 to 133,000, with a cumulative downward revision of 60,000 over the past two months. The unemployment rate is 4.2%, and wage growth has dropped to the lowest since May 2021. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman said directly on October 1: "I don't think there is urgency for further rate hikes." New York Fed President Williams was even clearer: there is no urgency for further rate hikes, and the Fed has time to gather more information. But Kansas City Fed President George warned: "Inflation is frustrating and must be addressed." At the September meeting, the committee unanimously agreed to raise rates by 25 basis points. The median of the dot plot pointed to one more hike this year; among 18 officials, 12 expected one more hike this year, and no one expected a rate cut this year. This is the "trump card" of the minutes—the hawkish trump card. But what happened after the meeting? Nonfarm payrolls collapsed, unemployment rose, and wage growth hit a four-year low. Bloomberg Economics judges that even though the September minutes showed officials' hawkish stance at that time, subsequent weaker data supports the Fed's wait-and-see attitude. The minutes are "past tense," the market prices in the "present tense." Bitcoin is currently around $86,000, having peaked at $87,000 on September 21 before pulling back. Resistance above: $86,700-$87,000—four failed attempts since September 21; the year's opening price of $87,570 is the ultimate barrier. Support below: $82,500—analysts generally see this as the "line between life and death"; breaking it could test $80,000. Middle range: $84,000-$85,000—current price is consolidating here. Two scenarios, two directions. Scenario A: Minutes are dovish (or tone is ambiguous) If the minutes show a "meaningful dovish faction" within the committee or a noticeably softened tone— → October rate hike expectations further drop to zero → Dollar weakens → Risk assets rebound → BTC is expected to test the $86,700-$87,000 resistance zone; a successful breakout opens the path to $93,700 Scenario B: Minutes are hawkish (exposing a tough stance) If the minutes show the committee is highly concerned about inflation persistence and most believed "another hike is necessary this year"— → Market reprices the possibility of an October hike → Dollar strengthens (the dollar index is already approaching 102, the highest since April 2025) → Yields surge → BTC may retest the $82,500 structural support; breaking it targets $80,000 Fed Chair Waller removed forward guidance after taking office, giving the market no pacifier. Vice Chairs Jefferson and Williams are seen as "authoritative guides," and their speeches this week have already prompted investors to sharply lower October rate hike expectations. If the minutes reveal that internal committee divisions are much larger than the market imagines— Then these minutes are a ticking time bomb. The market prices "data," the minutes expose "sentiment." Data has softened, but the sentiment at the September meeting was still at the stage of "inflation must be decisively suppressed." When data and sentiment diverge, volatility is the greatest certainty. At 2 a.m. tonight, you won't want to know the answer—but you must know it. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？