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September 28–October 4 Global macro guidance: Energy prices as the axis, second rate hike review as the main narrative! Diplomatic narrative fades→ energy risk rebound→ employment and inflation determine the next round of US Treasuries, while China's holiday causes some liquidity support for the market! This week's macro logic chain: #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 China-US summit to be held: Will the market reprice trade and technology risk premiums? US-Iran negotiations continue: Can negotiations continue? Optimistic expectations, Brent price fluctuations determine global energy inflation expectations. US Treasury yields high: How severe is US endogenous inflation? PCE + ISM + Nonfarm Payrolls: Data combination verifies US growth and inflation; October rate hikes reprice, bond market direction choices, and impact on global liquidity? 1. The first main theme: After the China-US summit, both sides validate the summit's results! Although structural contradictions remained unresolved after last week's China-US summit, progress was made in technology and trade. In terms of trade, the trade truce was extended by two months, and China and the US announced tariff cuts for 30 billion yuan worth of goods. On AI, both sides began talks, followed by some media reports that Chinese companies are considering purchasing the latest US chips. Therefore, this week it is important to watch how optimistic the market priced assets before the summit, whether the summit will meet market expectations, how market risk appetite will adjust, whether it will rise more than expected or fall below expectations, especially regarding the two key sectors of technology and trade. So far, media reports indicate progress in AI and trade