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$BTC The bull market is not confirmed yet Four days ago, I talked about the short-term holders' chart, where momentum has already turned green. Today's chart uses the same algorithm but switches to long-term holders. The blue line is LTH-MVRV, the floating profit multiple of long-term holders. The orange line is its own 365-day moving average. The blue line is filled green when above and red when below. Look to the right, it's still red. The blue line is indeed turning upward but is still below the orange line and hasn't risen above it. Meanwhile, the orange line is still trending downward. Looking back at history, from 2016 to 2017, 2019, 2020 to 2021, and 2023 to 2024, every real bull market period showed large green areas here. But in 2014, 2018, 2022, and now, it's red. So the current situation is this: short-term momentum has turned green, but long-term momentum is still red. New money is starting to make profits, but the trend for old money hasn't turned yet. This is not contradictory; it's the normal sequence in every cycle transition. Short-term moves first, long-term follows. But "moving first" and "confirmation" are two different things. I said in August that the bear market ended, and I stand by that judgment. Price reclaiming the 200-day moving average, spot demand turning positive, and miners stopping selling—all these are true. But between the bear market ending and the bull market confirmation, there is this red area. When it turns green, that's when I'll call the bull market. Until then, I still say: trust the direction, but don't rush the pace. #加密财库分化：买币还是回购？ #CLARITY法案9月15日闯关，60票成关键