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峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
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0.19美元的ARB,你敢追吗? 先看表面:利好轰炸,两天翻倍,追高盘被套。 8月底还在0.08-0.09趴着,大家都骂ARB是“垃圾治理币”,结果昨天到今天直接干到0.20+,涨幅超过100%。无数人FOMO追进去,然后价格从0.206砸到0.19,追高的全部套在山上。 日线RSI严重超买,布林带上轨被暴力突破,太热了,该降温了。 第一件事:Robinhood Chain改变了ARB的“命”。 以前ARB最大的问题是什么?只有治理权,没有收入权。 你持有ARB,只能投票,不能分钱。机构不买账,价格一路从2.2跌到0.08。 但现在变了。Robinhood Chain上线后,按AEP规则,净协议收入的10%回流Arbitrum生态(8%给DAO,2%给开发基金)。 第二件事:LG电子也来了,企业链叙事正在爆发。 LG电子在Arbitrum上构建广告链,RWA和代币化股票持续增长,Arbitrum Orbit链正在成为企业级L2的首选方案。 全球500强企业真的在用的公链,除了以太坊,就是Arbitrum。 ARB现在讲的故事是:“我们不只是以太坊的L2,我们是企业区块链的基础设施层。” 第三件事:技术面出现了一个必须警惕的信号。 利好兑现:Robinhood Chain的爆发已经被Price In 技术超买:两天翻倍,RSI严重超买,布林带上轨被突破 供给压力:9月16日左右团队/顾问解锁5612万枚,9月23日投资者解锁3651万枚,合计约9260万枚(按当前价约1800万刀) 宏观风险:9月15-16日FOMC,加息预期50-66%,偏鹰就是利空 多空对决,你自己看 一边是: Robinhood Chain单日400万刀费用,AEP收入持续流入 LG电子加入,企业链叙事正在爆发 DAO收入毛利率超97%,基本面质变 从0.08翻倍到0.19,趋势已经转多 一边是: 两天翻倍,RSI超买,技术面需要回踩 9月9260万枚解锁,供给压力明确 FOMC在即,宏观不确定性高 周末流动性低,大涨后容易获利了结 上方阻力:0.206 → 0.21 → 0.23 下方支撑:0.16-0.18 → 0.13-0.15(重要支撑区) 操作策略 已有多单: 分批减仓锁利润,别贪。保留部分仓位博二次上攻,止损上移到0.16-0.17。 空仓想做多: 等回调。关注0.16-0.18区间止跌信号(放量阳线或底背离),激进者轻仓试多,止损0.15下方,目标0.21-0.23。 想做空: 等确认跌破0.18且反弹无力,或出现顶部结构后再考虑,止损放0.206上方。 ARB这次的价值重估是真的,但价格已经透支了短期预期—— 0.20这个位置是情绪顶,不是基本面顶。 回调到0.15-0.16的时候,你敢不敢接? 五年前你们错过了BNB从0.1到10刀,今天你们又要错过ARB从0.08到0.8吗? 你追高0.20了吗? $HOOD $ETH $ARB
峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
UNI at $7—Are You Chasing the High or Missing Out? Let's look at the surface first: the rally went wild, but then the pullback began. From the low of $2.3-3 in early June, UNI has formed a steep main upward wave. It has risen 30-50% in the past week, 70%+ in the past month, reached an intraday high of 7.48 today, and now has fallen back to around $7. The weekly chart just broke above the upper mid-term box of 4.90 and confirmed it, with the mid-term target of 7.56 already reached. The daily RSI surged to around 80, and MACD momentum has slowed—the trend remains bullish, but the short-term rise is indeed too fast. The first thing: UNI is no longer a "voting coin" but a "money printer." In December 2025, the UNIfication proposal was approved, officially activating the fee switch and burning 100 million UNI tokens from the treasury at once. Afterwards, protocol fees will be continuously bought back and burned through the TokenJar/Firepit mechanism. At the end of July, daily burn funds were directly raised from $114,000 to $325,000 In early September, a single-day burn set a record: 184,000 UNI, worth over $1.15 million The second event: Robinhood Chain has launched, opening up the tokenized asset sector. Uniswap v4 has expanded to multi-chain, including Robinhood Chain. After launch, it quickly captured a large volume of tokenized stock trading—Apple, Tesla, and Nvidia's on-chain stocks were all traded on Uniswap. In early September, Uniswap's single-day DEX trading volume surged to around $3 billion, accounting for a very high proportion. Previously, Uniswap could only trade cryptocurrencies; now it can trade stocks, bonds, and RWAs This is a brand-new trillion-level market Every transaction incurs fees, which are used to buy back and burn UNI Third: Prices have risen, but institutions are still shouting about low prices. RWA and tokenized stocks represent the greatest incremental potential, and Robinhood Chain has already proven that this path can directly contribute revenue. Uniswap's share in the DEX market has not declined but actually increased, with TVL stabilizing between $3 and $4 billion. The institutional logic is simple: if Uniswap is the DeFi "New York Stock Exchange," then UNI is the exchange's "equity," and this "equity" is still being bought back and destroyed. The bullish and bearish showdowns are up to you On one side: Fee Switch opened, and the protocol continued to buy and burn tokens, with daily burns reaching a record of 184,000 coins Robinhood Chain launched, opening the tokenized stock/RWA sector Standard Chartered aims for $100, and Bitwise is included in the tokenization basket The weekly chart has broken through the 4.90 box and confirmed the medium-term trend Single-day DEX turnover reached $3 billion, with Uniswap accounting for a very high proportion On one side: From 2.3-3 to 7.48, the short-term increase is too large and needs to be digested to take profits The daily RSI surged to 80, and the momentum of the MACD slowed The 7.48-7.55 strong resistance zone, if it fails to break through three times, it may pull back Macroeconomic uncertainty ahead of the September FOMC has weighed on risk assets due to rate hike expectations Resistance above: 7.48-7.55→ 7.8 → 8.18-8.2→ 11.5 Support levels: 6.86 → 6.5 → 6.23-6.3 → 6.0-5.8 Operational strategy Mid-term long positions: Wait for a pullback to the 6.23-6.50 range, stop the decline with volume, then go long in batches. First target is 7.50-7.55; if it breaks out, aim for 8.00-8.20. Set a stop loss below 5.80. Aggressive Short-Term Trading: Sell high and buy low in the 7.00-7.20 range, with limited space. If it breaks below 6.86 and the rebound is weak, you can take a light position and try shorting at 6.50, with a stop loss at 7.2. Long-term believers: Invest with your eyes closed and invest below 6. Uniswap is one of the toughest assets in DeFi, and after Fee Switch, the logic completely changed. From 2027 to 2030, it could be $15-30 or even higher—betting on tokenized assets + deflation narratives. UNI is now a typical case of "fundamental explosion and excessive short-term gains"— 99% of people saw a 70% increase and immediately thought it was "too late," but didn't see the daily $1.15 million burned, the Robinhood Chain just launched, or Standard Chartered's $100 bid. When you step back to the day you hold your ground at 6.5, you'll find: It turns out it's not that UNI is rising too fast; it's that you always wait until the price is over before chasing it. How much does your UNI cost? At 7 this level, do you dare to chase or wait for a pullback? $BTC $ETH $UNI

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