ETH at $2540, are you chasing it?
First, look at the surface: up 34% in 30 days, retail investors shouting "ETH rise".
From mid-August around 1800-1900, it surged nonstop to 2540, up 12% in 7 days, 34% in 30 days. Market cap returned to second place, 24-hour trading volume surged. The breakthrough moment has arrived; if it holds, it will take off; if not, it will pull back.
First thing: ETFs are buying aggressively, but you might be fooled by a short squeeze.
Net inflows were $180 million on August 25, $192 million on the 26th, nearly $700 million for the whole last week—the strongest inflow week since 2026. BlackRock ETHA is the main force, BitMine bought another 32,400 coins, holdings surged to 5.847 million coins, close to 4.8% of circulating supply.
From 1900 to 2540, the short squeeze has already wiped out a large number of shorts. To go higher, it depends not on short covering but on real cash buying.
Institutions are buying, but the pace is slowing down.
Second thing: supply is tightening, this is the strongest mid-term bottom.
Staked amount is 42 million coins, accounting for 33%-35% of circulating supply. Along with ETF custody and corporate treasuries, the spot available for sale on exchanges is decreasing. Staking ETFs have launched (BlackRock ETHB, Grayscale ETHE), so institutions buying ETH are not just betting on price moves but also earning over 2% net yield.
Circulating supply is shrinking, selling pressure is drying up.
Institutions buying ETH get "rent + price appreciation" dual benefits, greatly increasing attractiveness.
Q4 Glamsterdam upgrade will further optimize L1 throughput; the long-term narrative remains.
Mid-term direction unchanged, but short-term is overheated.
Third thing: Jackson Hole is the biggest variable, happening tomorrow.
Today is August 27, Jackson Hole Symposium runs 27-29, Fed Chair Warsh will deliver the keynote tomorrow. The theme is "Financial Innovation: Payments and Policy," related to stablecoins and tokenization.
Dovish + emphasis on innovation → risk assets continue to earn premiums, ETH directly surges past 2600+
Hawkish + emphasis on inflation → levels like 2540 get hit first
Neutral official tone → high-level volatility, both bulls and bears suffer
You decide the bulls vs bears battle.
On one side:
ETFs have continuous large inflows, institutions are scooping up
42 million staked + ETF custody, selling pressure drying up
From 1900 to 2540, trend intact, bull flag pattern
Hold above 2550, target 2600-2823
On the other side:
2546 resisted three times, RSI 79 overbought
Short liquidity thinning, short squeeze momentum weakening
Jackson Hole speech is a double-edged sword
Whale sell walls at 2550-2600
Resistance above: 2546-2550 (weekly watershed) → 2600-2627 → 2700 → 2823
Support below: 2480-2500 → 2400-2450 (previous resistance turned support) → 2330-2360 (bull flag invalid)
Trading strategy
Short-term players:
Wait for pullback to 2480-2500 to stabilize before entering, stop loss at 2390, first target 2546-2560, second target 2600-2650.
Breakout strategy:
Wait for daily close above 2550, add positions if pullback doesn’t break 2530, targets 2600→2700→2823. Stop loss below 2520. If false breakout drops below 2500, exit first.
Swing players:
Add at 2420-2450 pullback structure, can chase on the right side if it holds 2560. Target 2820+. Reduce positions if it breaks below 2400.
Long-term believers:
DCA below 2420. Staking rate rising + ETFs + corporate treasuries triple lockup, mid-term supply contraction logic is strong. Target 3000-3500 by end of 2026.
ETH now is like BTC at the end of 2020—
99% think "it’s risen too much and should correct," but once ETFs accelerate inflows, it directly rises another 50%.
The day 2550 holds, you’ll realize:
It’s not that ETH is weak, it’s that you always sell just before the final push.
What is your ETH cost basis?
At 2540, will you chase or not?
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