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babala又赚钱了
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ETH今天终于开始给空头喘气了!
$ETH
昨天我在2491开空,行情没有直接下跌,反而先拉到2531附近,把2500上方的空头重新清洗了一遍,随后才快速回落到2462,现在价格在2470附近震荡。
这种走势真的很经典:先杀空,再杀追高的多。
从价格结构来看,ETH前面最高冲到2545,最近两次反弹又都在2530附近被压了回来,说明2500—2545依然存在明显抛压,多头暂时还没有能力完成真正突破。
我在2491做空的核心逻辑没有改变:ETH从1900附近连续拉到2500上方,短期涨幅过大,价格需要通过回调或者横盘消化获利盘,而不是永远靠空头爆仓继续上涨。
但这单也暴露了一个问题——进场节奏偏早。
昨天原计划止损放在2528,而ETH最高拉到了2531附近。如果严格按照计划执行,这单会先被扫损,随后行情才开始下跌。方向判断正确,不代表交易过程就是正确的,压力位上方本来就是最容易扫流动性的地方。
今天接下来重点看几个位置:
✔ 2490—2505:第一压力区
✔ 2528—2545:强压力与空单失效区
✔ 2455—2465:当前第一支撑
✔ 有效跌破2455:下看2435—2420
✔ 继续跌破2420:下看2390—2356
目前价格已经跌回小时线EMA20下方,但仍在EMA50附近获得支撑,所以今天这轮下跌暂时只能定义为高位回调,还不能直接说趋势反转。
如果2460能够守住,ETH仍可能再次反弹测试2490—2500;但如果小时线放量跌破2455,并且反抽无法站回去,空头才算真正拿到主动权,后面测试2420和2380的概率会明显增加。
如果昨天的2491空单还在,我会在2460—2470附近先止盈一部分,剩余仓位把止损收回2495附近,不再让已经出现的利润重新变成亏损。
今天我不会在2460支撑附近继续追空。
想重新做空,要么等待价格反弹到2490—2500再次受阻,要么等待2455跌破后反抽确认。价格越接近支撑,追空的盈亏比反而越差。
BTC虽然还在8万美元附近维持强势,但ETH已经开始明显滞涨。只要2545没有被突破,这里就仍然是高位震荡,而不是无脑追多的位置。
空军可以激进,但不能嘴硬。
看错就止损,看对就收钱,绝对不补仓。
#ETH震荡 after touching $2500 $ETH
babala opened a short again! Entered short at 2491 for ETH!
This wave of ETH violently surged from around 1900 to 2545, rising over 30% in just a few days, driven by BTC strength, ETF capital inflow, improved liquidity expectations, and consecutive short liquidations.
But no matter how strong the rally, it can't keep rising without falling.
After ETH first hit 2545, the price quickly dropped back to 2356, indicating obvious profit-taking and selling pressure above 2500. Although it rebounded again, the highest point this round only reached about 2518, failing to break the previous high, forming a structure of a second failed pressure zone attack.
So I chose to short at 2491.
I'm not betting on ETH turning bearish immediately, but that the 2500–2545 resistance zone cannot be broken through in the short term, and the price needs to retrace to digest the rapid previous gains.
✔ Entry position: 2491
✔ Aggressive stop loss: 2528
✔ First take profit: 2460
✔ Second take profit: 2435–2420
✔ Main target: 2380–2360
✔ After breaking 2356, continue to watch around 2320
Entry at 2491, stop loss at 2528, single trade risk about 37 points; main target at 2380, potential space about 111 points, risk-reward ratio close to 1:3.
If price breaks below 2460, it means this high and fall is confirmed; if it continues to break below 2420, the short-term bullish structure will weaken significantly, and 2356 will likely be tested again.
But if the hourly chart stabilizes above 2520 and breaks 2528 upward, I will stop loss and exit immediately, not waiting for another attack on 2545, nor keep adding shorts during the rise.
The bull market can continue, ETFs can keep flowing in, but after a 600+ point rise in three days, those blindly chasing longs above 2500 should be prepared to be wiped out by a big bearish candle.
This time, I stand at the resistance waiting for a pullback.
The shorts never admit defeat, short first at 2491 as a salute!
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