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峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
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4640美元的黄金,你敢买吗? 先看表面:涨太多了,散户恐高不敢上车。 过去1个月涨了14%,15个交易日里有12天收阳,从4200以下直接干到4680。K线告诉你:均线多头排列,RSI约70(超买但强势行情可维持),多头结构完整,回调就是上车机会。但你心里在打鼓:都涨这么多了,还能追吗? 第一件事:黄金正在变成“不是黄金的黄金”。 以前黄金涨靠什么?通胀、避险、美元跌。现在呢? 美债回购计划扩大引发“美元贬值叙事”——美国政府自己在印钱买自己的债 美伊紧张局势升温,制裁与报复预期推升避险需求 30年期美债收益率此前创19年新高,但金价照样涨 看懂了吗?黄金现在不只看利率,它在交易“财政崩溃”逻辑。 第二件事:央行和ETF在抢筹,散户在观望。 上周黄金ETF流入近47吨,这是2022年以来最大单周流入之一。中国央行连续第N个月增持黄金,从未停止。 更关键的是:金价每次回落,ETF就加速流入。 机构把这波回调当打折促销,散户在等“再跌一点”。 你等到的,可能是永远等不到的低点。 第三件事:这周有两颗核弹,你要当心。 8月26日:7月PCE通胀数据。 软数据→降息预期升温→金价冲击4700+ 热数据→短期波动加大,但避险需求反而可能推高金价 8月27-29日:Jackson Hole全球央行年会。 新任美联储主席Kevin Warsh周五发表主旨演讲 这是他的政策框架首秀,市场极度敏感 利率现在3.50-3.75%,降息周期已经开启。 如果Warsh放鸽,黄金直接起飞;如果偏鹰,短期回调但中期逻辑不变。 多空对决,你自己看 一边是: 15天涨12天,多头趋势完整 ETF上周流入47吨,机构加速进场 央行持续购金,美元贬值叙事强化 地缘政治风险溢价持续攀升 一边是: RSI约70,短期超买需要消化 4680-4700三次未过,获利盘压力 PCE或Warsh放鹰可能引发回调 高位追涨,短期容易被套 上方阻力:4680-4700 → 4780(50%回撤)→ 5000(想象空间) 下方支撑:4620-4600 → 4587(38.2%斐波那契)→ 4500 操作策略 短线选手: 回踩4620-4600区域分批做多,止损4580下方,第一目标4680-4700,突破看4750-4800。 波段玩家: 4700有效突破并放量站稳后右侧加仓,目标5000+。如果PCE超预期热或Warsh放鹰导致回调,4500附近是黄金买点。 长线信仰者: 央行购金+财政担忧+地缘风险,结构性牛市远未结束。每次回调都是加仓机会。 黄金现在是“多重保险”资产—— 99%的人还在用“实际利率”模型算金价,没发现市场已经在交易“美元信用重置”。 4700突破的那一天,你会发现: 原来不是黄金涨太快,是你每次都用旧地图找新大陆。 $BTC $XAU $XAUT
峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
$80 HYPE, are you chasing it? First, the surface: Trump endorses it, price soars. On August 19, Trump unusually named Hyperliquid at a White House crypto meeting, stating that the CFTC chairman is "introducing it into the U.S. in a fully compliant and legal manner." Once the news broke, HYPE immediately rose 11%, then expanded to over 20%, breaking $72. On August 23, it hit an all-time high of $83.27, up more than 31% in a week. First thing: Trump personally named it, this is "official certification." On August 19, Trump directly mentioned Hyperliquid at the White House. The CFTC is formulating regulatory pathways to allow Hyperliquid to operate legally in the U.S. The Hyperliquid Policy Center has submitted proposals to the SEC and CFTC. Coinbase just added 50x perpetual contracts on Base using Hyperliquid infrastructure. The U.S. government is giving HYPE the green light. One of the world's largest compliant exchanges is using its underlying tech. Institutional channels are opening. Second thing: $1.2 billion unlocking is the real test. On August 29, 14.17 million HYPE tokens will unlock, worth about $1.2 billion. Of these, 46.6% go to insiders (early investors), 46.3% to the community, and 7% to the foundation. Insiders have extremely low costs and more reason to take profits than the community. Historical unlock price reactions vary: down 7% in July, up 1% in June, down 14.1% in May. Third thing: fundamentals are very strong, but short-term risks are accumulating. Hyperliquid has become one of the largest on-chain derivatives trading venues. VanEck points out that spot + perpetual total volume will exceed $633 billion in Q1 2026. Over 97% of protocol fees are used to buy back HYPE. The more trading, the more buybacks, the stronger the buying pressure. Open interest in futures is about $3.36 billion. 24-hour spot volume is $334 million, futures volume $4.88 billion — leverage is both a booster and a powder keg. Long vs. short battle, you decide. On one side: Trump names it at the White House, CFTC pushes compliance. Coinbase integrates Hyperliquid infrastructure. 97% fee buybacks, continuous buying pressure. 31% weekly rise, strong trend. On the other side: $1.2 billion unlock on August 29, insiders hold 46.6%. Whales plan to short 42 million. After hitting ATH at 83, it has pulled back to 78. Futures leverage is extremely high, volatility may be intense. Resistance above: 82-83.5 (ATH zone) → 90-100 (psychological barrier). Support below: 76.5-77 → 75 (first psychological support) → 62 (breakout starting point). Trading strategy Short-term traders: Follow the breakout above 83.5 with volume, stop loss at 80, target 90-100. Wait and see if it falls below 77. Swing traders: Buy in batches at 75-77 support zone, stop loss if it breaks 73-74, target retest 83-85, hold if it breaks through for 90-100. Long-term believers: Watch buyback progress and U.S. compliance developments. If the CFTC officially approves U.S. entry, HYPE’s potential is far beyond 100. HYPE is now the most divided asset of 2026 — On one side, presidential endorsement, compliance in sight, explosive fundamentals; On the other, $1.2 billion unlocking, whales shorting, high leverage. The day it breaks 83, you might regret not getting in. The day it falls below 75, you might be glad you didn’t chase the high. August 29 will reveal the truth. $BTC $ETH $HYPE

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