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尼克NIC
尼克NIC
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今天这条是来交账的。Day 1 我说要公开验证一个假设,Day 2 修了个运维 bug 重启,今天第一笔真实结算数据出来了——不是回测,不是 PPT,是 bot 按我设的模拟规则一笔笔跑出来的。 先报数(纸仓 $200,没动真钱): 结算 66 笔,全部 NO 赢 尾部亏损:0 笔 已实现 PnL:+$70.85 本金 200 → 270.85,约 +35% 还有 13 笔 open 在等结算,累计挂过 79 笔 maker 翻译成人话:66 个"市场觉得不太可能发生"的事,66 个都没发生。Trump 跟 Greenland 签协议?没。Musk 重新入阁?没。Comey 被捕?没。SNL 拿艾美?没。我卖的"Yes"全没兑现,于是白拿 premium。 但我要泼自己一盆冷水。66/66 全赢,听起来很爽,但它也说明一件事:这段时间压根没遇到"尾部"——也就是冷门真的发生的那一下。回测里尾部概率约 0.4%6%,按 66 笔算,期望尾部 ≈ 0.54 笔。一个都没来,是运气,不是本事。#BTC突破80000美元,能否站稳新关口
尼克NIC
尼克NIC
Others teach you how to trade crypto with AI, I do the opposite: fully expose and critique everything
1/ The whole internet is teaching you how to use AI for coin trading. I do the opposite: make all the code, transactions, and losses of the Polymarket bot I wrote public. You come and nitpick. 2/ Show your trump card first. Bot strategy in short: Place maker orders on Polymarket and sell overvalued niche contracts (low-probability Yes contracts). The basis is not mysticism but backtesting: out of 225 settled markets, 113 < 20% probability, with an actual win rate of 0%. Niche is systematically overrated, which is Favorite-Longshot Bias, with papers and data. 3/ But I won't tell you "this is a guaranteed win." Because there are two layers I haven't verified yet: Simulation layer: I ran a $500 paper warehouse, +53%. But this is old data from before I modified the realism model, so I'm more optimistic. Now running back to $200, plus Maker closing rate (40% per cycle) and a 2-day settlement delay—closer to reality, but slower. Reality layer: Haven't topped up real money yet. On-chain and exchange balances are now zero. 4/ What to disclose: - Strategy logic and backtest reports (written document) - Transaction/settlement data for each scan - Risk control triggers and loss records - Actual after-hours real capital curve What not to disclose: - My private key (never issued) - "Copy trading link" (none, not done) 5/ Why dare to disclose losses: Because losing is the real thing

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