Congress on holiday, SEC doves on the table—US crypto regulation is stalled on both fronts
At the beginning of the year, the entire industry was shouting: "2026 will be the year of regulatory implementation." ”
The CLARITY Act passed the House by a large margin, and the Senate Banking Committee approved it smoothly. SEC Chairman Atkins repeatedly stated that he would give the crypto industry the green light. Institutional funds are gearing up, and RWA projects are lining up to go on-chain.
And then?
And then there was nothing more.
Let's start with the legislative thread.
The CLARITY Act — the first bipartisan unified crypto regulation bill in the U.S., passed by the House 294-134, and approved by the Senate Banking Committee 15-9. Only the Senate full vote remains to be taken this final step.
And the result? Before the August recess, the vote was gone.
Senate Majority Leader Thune confirmed on August 7 that the vote would be postponed to September. The Democrats refused to cooperate with the fast-track voting process, and the two parties could not reach an agreement on ethical terms. The Republicans said it should be loose, while the Democrats said they would strictly investigate the crypto holdings of the president and the big shots. After weeks of back-and-forth, there was no compromise.
Even more striking is the threshold: Senate approval requires 60 votes to end the lengthy debate. Republicans have only 53 seats, requiring at least 7 Democrats to vote across party lines. TD Cowen analysts give a 75% chance of failure.
On Polymarket, the probability of the bill passing in 2026 has plummeted from over 70% at the start of the year to just 17%. A $5 million bet was expected to evaporate overnight.
In short: just one shiver from the finish line, but my legs went weak.
Now, let's talk about the rules line.
Congress is unreliable, and the SEC says: I'll handle it myself.
On August 11, the SEC suddenly announced that it would hold a public meeting this Friday (August 14) to vote on the "Regulation Crypto" rule proposal. This was the first formal crypto rulemaking since Paul Atkins took office as SEC chairman.
The framework is clear—startup exemption, financing exemption, safe harbor for investment contracts. "I'll tell you what the rules are, how to get exemptions, and how to enter safe harbor"—from "chasing and fighting" to "leading and going."
The whole industry is waiting. Waiting for Friday. Waiting for this rule.
And what happened?
On the evening of August 14, the SEC suddenly announced: the meeting was canceled.
The reason is "unforeseen scheduling issues." New date? Not announced.
Meanwhile, the "innovation exemption" for tokenized securities—originally planned for Apple, Tesla, and Nvidia stock tokens to trade 24×7 hours on the blockchain—has also been extended.
The reason is even more surreal: the White House fears interfering with congressional legislation, while Wall Street fears disrupting traditional trading rules. With pressure from both sides, the SEC can't hold out.
What is the current situation?
Legislative Line: The CLARITY Act is pushed to a procedural vote on September 15. 60 votes are needed, which is currently insufficient. The probability of passage is only 17%.
Ruleline: Reg Crypto meeting canceled, new date to be determined. Innovation exemption postponed twice.
Both roads came to a halt.
Congress is responsible for holidays, and the SEC is responsible for standing up pigeons.
What does this mean for the market?
First, uncertainty continues. Exchanges don't know what standards to comply with, project teams don't know whether tokens count as securities, and institutional funds are reluctant to enter on a large scale.
Second, the hardest hit is for altcoins. High-beta altcoins tend to fall much more sharply than BTC in an environment of regulatory uncertainty.
Third, the RWA and tokenization narratives were interrupted. Once the innovation exemption was postponed, the timeline for on-chain stocks and tokenized assets was all pushed back.
To be honest:
If the CLARITY Act doesn't pass this year, the next Congress will reshuffle and everything starts over.
Although SEC rules are fast, they are only administrative rules—the next chairman can be overturned at any time.
Neither legislation nor rules are reliable.
The biggest risk in this industry has never been market fluctuations.
It's the people in Washington—when will they finally get to work properly?
$BTC$ETH$OKB #CLARITY表决待定, the SEC rules have not been implemented
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