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UKong🥷🪃
UKong🥷🪃
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美股科技内部细分轮动的割裂感真的拉满,周期切换毫无连贯性可言。 之前圈子里扎堆押注存储周期,大家默认内存供需紧张的格局能稳稳扛到2028年,不少人直接拿长线逻辑重仓躺平,结果整个7月存储整条线直接迎来资金集中兑现,个股集体深度回调。 短短三十天不到资金直接调转枪口,场内统一变成光模块走强存储承压的交易主线,这种说变就变的市场风格,长线叙事已经很难吃到稳定收益,大部分时候只能盯着盘面技术形态和主力资金流向做短线波段博弈。 ▶️海量资金扎堆科技赛道 1. 今年全球科技主题基金累计净流入1310亿美元,已经直接超越2025年全年的历史峰值,增量500亿美元; 2. 科技基金年度流入规模已经连续四年保持递增,按照当下的流入速率推算,2026全年科技类基金总流入有望摸到2160亿美元,再度刷新历史; 3. 上周单周就有96亿美元资金进场,全年折算下来美股股票基金总流入将达到6520亿美元,有史以来最高的年度吸纳体量。 一边是巨量热钱疯狂涌入科技大板块推高整体估值,一边是AI算力产业链内部上下游出现严重的资金分流,容错率被无限压缩,交易环境的难度肉眼可见。 $AAOI $QQQ
UKong🥷🪃
UKong🥷🪃
Overnight, all three major U.S. stock indexes closed lower, ending a five-day winning streak on the Dow. The overall decline was limited, merely a short-term profit-taking absorption, with no panic selling pressure. The market's structural divergence was particularly pronounced, and it was not an overall weakening. Tech stocks are deeply fragmented internally, with the memory chip sector performing the most abnormally. After opening low and rising high, it still saw widespread declines. Western Digital led the decline, SanDisk and SK Hynix weakened in tandem, with only Seagate narrowing slightly higher. Other chip sectors are relatively strong, with ARM, Qualcomm, AMD, and TSMC all rising, while Nvidia and Intel made slight adjustments. AI applications became the biggest overnight weakness, with sector sentiment cooling rapidly. Several core stocks plunged, with Datadog and Applovin dropping over 19%, and signs of short-term capital flight becoming very obvious. 🚀 SpaceX has reversed the trend with extreme bearishness The day before, the stock plunged over 13%, and with the unlocking of restricted shares worth hundreds of billions, the market was unanimously bearish. On the day of the lock-up, the market surged over 6% against the trend, with its market value returning above 1.5 trillion yuan and trading volume hitting a one-and-a-half-month high. Reversal Core Logic: - Early overdraft: The previous day's sharp drop has fully priced in the negative impact of the lock-up unlock, releasing selling pressure early - Short positions forced to close: High short positions are expected to fail, and passive buying pushes the stock price higher - Strong institutional support: Multiple investment banks raised target prices and maintained buy ratings - Retail investors are eager to bottom-fish: opening buying volume far exceeds daily averages Note: This is only the first round of unlocking; there will be large-scale unlocking pressure at the end of the year and next year, so the market is only a short-term emotional recovery. Additionally, SpaceX and Tesla have established a 16.8 billion USD Texas Gigachip factory, continuing to catalyze the hardware sector. 📰 A quick overview of overnight key news coverage - The Strait of Hormuz agreement has not been finalized, and the US continues negotiations, providing emotional support for oil prices - The U.S. plans to postpone polysilicon tariffs and set a transition period, benefiting the domestic photovoltaic import supply chain - High-end memory shortage, NVIDIA plans to lower the memory specifications of new chips - OpenAI opens free text chat to users and countersues Apple for infringement - The U.S. introduced new policies cracking down on birth tourism and tightening citizenship rights for births, engaging in legal battles - The world's first mRNA influenza vaccine was approved, accelerating commercialization in the sector - Trump frequently liaises with the new Federal Reserve chair, and subsequent monetary policy is worth watching In summary, the core of the overnight market is expected spread trading. Unanimous bearish news has landed, but there is no momentum for sell-offs, and some may even reverse. Continue to monitor the future trends of technology tracks and unlocked-up stocks. $SPCX $SKHY $WDC

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