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Let's take a closer look at the "Clarity Act," a bill considered to determine the fate of the crypto world. This week, it also faces a critical phase—whether it can be passed before the August 7 recess Key Milestone — Whether it can be passed before the August 7 recess The core logic is that if it cannot pass before the August 7 recess, the Senate will reconvene on September 14, and by then, the U.S. 2027 fiscal bill will need to be debated, plus other national-level bills being discussed, making it difficult to guarantee clear priorities for the bill If the bill enters the midterm elections in October-November, due to election issues, Senate voting will be more cautious, and the probability of passage will be lower. So, in theory, if it fails to pass before the August 7 recess, the approval time for the bill will be greatly extended, which is the main concern for the market! Where is the current bottleneck? The basic text of the Clarity Act has now been finalized. Next is the unified text→ the Senate will vote with 60 votes→ a full Senate vote→ the House of Representatives will finalize the Senate text → the Presidential Office for signature The current bottleneck lies in the Senate seeking 60 votes. Currently, seven Democratic lawmakers oppose the bill, mainly because Democrats use the bill to vote and set demands and set prices. Republicans, or rather Trump, are unlikely to compromise easily, making 60 votes the biggest bottleneck Senate Republican leader Thune has already held a pessimistic outlook on the current situation, saying the bill is unlikely to pass before the recess window. Of course, the window for passing bills before adjournment is not 100% closed. What should we focus on next? 1. The agenda of the Senate meeting on August 3rd did not include the topic of a clear bill, but procedurally, its absence does not mean the party communication window is closed. Simply put, although it was not on the agenda, negotiations and negotiations can still be made 2. Whether there will be a partisan cooperation agreement between August 3 and August 4, especially with key Democrats like Warner, Booker, Gallego, and Gillibrand publicly supporting the new version. If it does, it means the bill will be easier to pass, with 60 votes possible 3. If by the evening of August 4 US time, there is still no clear party agreement, the probability of the bill passing this week will be greatly reduced, because the procedures required for adjournment will take time to advance, and the time is too tight, reducing the chances of success. Can the Clarity Act really decide the fate of the crypto world? This is the core concern for many people, and also a key misconception. Many believe the bill determines the fate of the crypto world, but I don't think so! What is the role of the Clarity Act in the crypto world? The core is the speed at which U.S. crypto assets are institutionalized—in plain terms, it determines how quickly U.S. capital accepts crypto legally and compliantly. If the bill passes, it will change the fate of the entire industry in the U.S. and accelerate the integration of traditional finance. The speed of capital participation will greatly change. With more capital and more participants and institutions, it will naturally benefit the market However, this positive news is subtle and long-term, changing the industry environment rather than fundamentals entirely. For #Bitcoin coin prices, short-term upward momentum will inevitably stimulate gains, but to truly address the current difficulties in the concept crypto world, macro improvements must be combined. The reverse logic is simple: since the bill does not change the fundamentals of the crypto world, it will not harm the fundamentals, especially for BTC. This means the fundamentals remain unbroken, at worst valuation adjustments, market pressure, and delayed new trends. So the final conclusion is that the Clear Act cannot change the fate of the crypto world; it only changes the survival environment of the crypto world, or rather, short-term fate. If passed, it's better; if not, people will be pessimistic, but there's no need to despair. Back to the present, if the crypto bill doesn't pass this week and BTC prices fall, it will inevitably be a phase of FUD and undervaluation. If fundamentals remain intact, undervaluation is a buying opportunity. If the bill passes, prices will rise in the short term, so don't get too excited. The macro outlook is currently not optimistic. US stocks have not yet finished their Q2 earnings report, valuation corrections are ongoing, and whether the bill's passage will allow BTC to buck the trend remains to be seen! Short-term bill assessment: #财报观察员: Four draws will be held this week, with Circle finishing #CLARITY法案错过休会窗口 Although there are obstacles in the Senate, the private communication window for partisan communication still exists. As long as conditions are agreed upon and the Democrats change their stance, there is still time to initiate the review process before August 4. Currently, the market is disappointed with the bill's passage because the probability is low, not that the probability has disappeared, so there is no need to be completely disappointed!