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挖矿的小羊
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白宫一句话,决定你仓位的生死
7月31日,两党参议员Tillis和Gallego把最新的伦理折中方案送到了白宫。
方案纳入了州总检察长的执法角色——这是民主党一直死咬的点。
财政部长贝森特当天直接开炮,敦促参议院“立即投票”,还引用了中本聪的名言——“如果你不相信我或者不理解,我没时间说服你,抱歉”。
Coinbase CEO Armstrong也在喊:“法案已经准备好全院表决了”。
但有用吗?
先给你算笔账。
距8月休会只剩一周。
法案过关需要60票。
共和党53席——但Hawley和Paul已经明确要投No。实际只有51票。
意味着至少需要9个民主党人倒戈。
而Tillis-Gallego方案送白宫之前——Gallego本人和另外6个民主党参议员上周刚说过:法案“还不够”。
自己人都不一定投Yes,你让白宫怎么点头?
贝森特为什么急?
因为他知道——窗口只剩一周,白宫只要拖两天,这法案今年就没了。
摩根大通昨天发报告:法案年内通过概率已降至37%(Kalshi),Polymarket更低,只有26%。
分析师还警告了一句更狠的话——
“法案审批拖得越久,代币化和区块链应用的增长,越可能被传统金融基础设施吸收,而不是流入公共加密网络。”
翻译成人话:
你以为拖的是时间?拖的是整个行业的未来。
另一边,银行还在补刀。
美国银行家协会、76个州银行组织还在拼命游说——坚决反对稳定币收益条款。
134家银行联名施压。摩根大通CEO戴蒙亲自放话要“ fight ”到底。
行业消息人士透露:收益条款在表决前至少会部分调整。
白宫还没回复,银行已经把刀架在法案脖子上了。
所以我问你——
你现在给CLARITY今年过关打几成?
我的判断:不超过25%。
理由很简单——
白宫回复如果Yes,民主党那边马上会有至少3-5个议员跳出来反对,说“州检察长角色还不够”。
白宫回复如果No,那连投票都不会有,直接拖到9月——然后11月中期选举,谁都顾不上这个法案了。
进退都是死局。
你盯着Polymarket的概率上上下下。
白宫在审查方案。
银行在会议室游说。
你在K线上买单。
一周时间,9张民主党票,白宫一句话——
这三个条件同时满足的概率,比你钱包里的山寨币归零还低。
评论区说说——你的仓位,还能扛几天?
$BTC $ETH $USDC #白宫回应将决定CLARITY法案下周能否投票
The "whale halt to eat" 843,775 BTC: the biggest buying in the market has disappeared
Strategy released its Q2 earnings report after the market closed yesterday.
Net loss of $8.22 billion.
Loss per share was $24.45. Last year, it earned $32.6 per share in the same period.
Where did you lose out? Almost all are fair value write-downs of Bitcoin holdings—in other words, when the price drops, you have to admit the loss on paper.
But that's not the point.
The key point is another sentence—
Strategy announced the end of the "buy all the dips" strategy.
Future new funds will be allocated between Bitcoin and US dollar reserves.
Translated into plain language: In the future, having money doesn't mean buying coins.
The style has changed.
Over the past two years, Strategy has been the most stable "net buying liquidity pool" in the market.
Weekly rigid buying of hundreds of millions of dollars remains unshakable.
Whether it's a bull or bear market, whether it's 60,000 or 30,000—buy.
The market has long been accustomed to it: if prices fall, it's not scary—Strategy will take over.
Now this pool is closed.
As of July 26, Strategy held 843,775 BTC, accounting for 4.02% of the total Bitcoin supply.
But in the past five weeks—zero increases.
The most recent disclosed Bitcoin purchase occurred on June 22.
It's been five weeks. I didn't buy a single SAT pill.
Now let's look at the cost price.
The total acquisition cost was $63.69 billion, with an average price of $75,476 per token.
On July 27, Bitcoin was priced at about $64,915.
On July 31, it dropped to $62,660.
How much is the floating loss? Nearly $9 billion.
843,775 coins, each losing $12,000.
What does this mean?
$75,476 is now the market's biggest psychological defense.
In the past, this price was the belief of "diamond hands"—the Strategy average price here indicates that the big players are optimistic.
Now?
It has become a 'break-even selling pressure' threshold.
Once the price falls below this level, the most steadfast holder—the whale who bought 843,775 BTC—could become the most determined seller in the market.
Why?
Because Strategy has broken the myth of "buy only, not sell."
This year, about $218 million worth of Bitcoin has already been sold to pay preferred dividends.
In June, the "Bitcoin Monetization Program" was launched, authorizing the sale of up to $1.25 billion worth of BTC.
The CEO made it clear: the funds for future preferred share buybacks may come from selling MSTR shares, or from selling Bitcoin.
In the past two years, every time you bottom-fish, someone buys in—that person is Strategy.
Now that person is gone.
Not only will they stop buying, they might even become sellers.
The weekly rigid buying of hundreds of millions has disappeared, replaced by potential selling pressure.
The supply-demand balance has flipped.
$BTC $MSTR $XMSTR #Strategy终止逢低买币, Q2 recorded a paper loss of 8.2 billion yuan
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