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$BTC - CPI analysis (educational) CPI drops today 1h before NY open. Consensus: Headline CPI MoM: +0.1% Headline CPI YoY: 3.4% Core CPI MoM: +0.2% Core CPI YoY: 2.5% The recent weaker labor market print slightly reduced expectations for another Fed hike (50/50rn). This puts even more weight on today's inflation data to determine how the market prices the Fed's next move. From the last ~20 CPI releases, the surprise vs. expectations has mattered much more for BTC (risk assets in general) than the absolute CPI number itself. Cooler than expected > Headline ≤0.0% MoM and/or Core ≤0.1% > Inflation pressure comes in softer than priced > Hike probabilities ↓ > USD ↓ > Risk assets ↑ -> Historically bullish setup for BTC Hotter than expected > Especially Core ≥0.3% MoM / Headline >3.4% YoY > Inflation remains sticky > Hike probabilities ↑ > USD ↑ > Risk assets ↓ -> Historically bearish setup for BTC Core will be particularly important. A mixed print can create a very messy initial reaction if headline and core point in opposite directions. Based on the last ~20 prints, the rough historical distribution has been: Cooler -> ~70–80% positive BTC reaction In-line/mixed -> ~50–60% neutral/positive -> still, often quick position drives on print Hotter -> ~65–75% negative reaction Don't take these numbers as probabilities for what CPI itself will print - they're the historical BTC reactions conditional on the type of deviation from expectations Short term, I expect aggressive positioning to get hunted around the release. First move doesn't necessarily equal the real move -> real move comes after the initial impulses stabilize For me, the important sequence is: CPI surprise -> rates repricing -> yields/USD reaction -> risk asset reaction. Took profits yesterday into the move lower as posted Keeping u updated about my plans