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#Tonight, CPI will be announced, will the pricing of September interest rate hikes be rewritten? Tonight, I am not so worried about CPI, and my prediction is likely to meet market expectations. Why? What the market is really trading now is not whether "inflation will continue to decline," but whether core inflation suddenly gets out of control. Based on the current energy prices, employment data, and previous inflation performance, I prefer a moderate decline in CPI in July, with an overall monthly rate of 0.1% and a core monthly rate of 0.2%. The expected year-on-year rates of 3.4% and 2.5% are likely to be realized. The latest Reuters survey also gave a largely consistent expectation. Therefore, what I personally value more is not the CPI "meeting expectations" itself, but how the market trades after meeting expectations. The non-farm payroll has significantly cooled down, and employment in May and June has been significantly revised downward, indicating that the Federal Reserve is now facing a dilemma of "employment is starting to loosen, but inflation has not fully returned to 2%." Now that the pricing of the September interest rate hike is close to 50-50, essentially the market is betting on the last card-CPI. I think the CPI is in line with expectations and may instead be a catalyst for the bulls. Because as long as core inflation does not exceed expectations, the market has reason to retrad the combination of "weak employment + cooling inflation", and the expectation of a rate hike in September will naturally decrease, putting pressure on the US dollar and US bond yields. High-volatility assets such as $BTC and $ETH may instead experience a wave of re-pricing. Of course, if the core CPI directly surges above 0.3%, the story will be completely different, and the market will start trading "September interest rate hikes" again, and BTC will probably be the first to be slapped in the short term. The above are personal opinions and do not constitute any investment advice!$BTC