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As soon as the night session opens, things start to get off track. Every time it gets to evening, the U.S. and Iran stir up trouble. BTC and ETH plummeted sharply as news of the strait closure spread, while $CL remained firmly above $82. Geopolitical risks are being repriced. The agreement in Hormuz was as good as not having been discussed at all. Both the U.S. and Iran are increasing their stakes, but what they are adding are chips, not sincerity. The core of the deadlock lies not in the agreement, but in the implementation. The negotiations between Iran and Oman are still at a stalemate, with even basic terms like transit fees not being addressed. Analysts say Iran's bargaining chips are losing value, and the international community's tolerance for blockading the strait is diminishing, but the strait cannot be opened in the short term. The transmission chain is clear: geopolitical risks push up oil prices, which in turn drive inflation expectations, and inflation expectations limit the scope for interest rate cuts, naturally putting pressure on risk assets. If the CPI data continues to cool down tonight, this logic chain can be temporarily eased. However, if the CPI rebounds, geopolitical and macroeconomic factors will create a dual squeeze. Now, it's best to avoid making any predictions until the data is finalized tonight and the direction becomes clear. No matter how lively the night trading gets, it doesn't carry as much weight as that set of numbers. $BTC $ETH $BZ $CL #The Hormuz Strait navigation agreement has not been finalized, and oil price risks are heating up.$BTC