المنشور

#WeakConsumptionFedSplit July retail sales falling 0.6% caught my attention because the market was expecting growth, not the biggest decline since May 2025 📉 Consumer sentiment weakened too, dropping to 51.0 in August. Combined with cooler CPI and PPI, that makes a September rate hike harder to justify. But the picture still isn’t clean. One-year inflation expectations actually rose from 4.2% to 4.3%, so consumers are spending less while expecting prices to remain elevated 😵‍💫 To me, that’s the uncomfortable part: weaker demand points toward slower growth, while persistent inflation expectations give the Fed a reason to stay cautious. The data isn’t clearly hawkish or dovish—it’s pulling policy in opposite directions. I’m curious which signal the Fed will prioritize now: what consumers are doing today, or what they expect prices to do next.