المنشور

#CPIEasesHikeBets July U.S. inflation largely matched expectations, with headline CPI easing to 3.4% year-on-year and core inflation slowing to 2.5%. Following the release, market-implied odds of no September rate change reportedly increased to approximately 59.9%. Short-term Treasury yields declined, gold recovered after an initial drop, and Bitcoin remained relatively rangebound. The result weakens the argument for an immediate rate increase without confirming that inflation has fully returned to target. Attention now shifts to PPI and future energy prices. Producer-price pressure could eventually flow into consumer inflation, while fiscal deficits and elevated term premiums may keep longer-term Treasury yields high even if the Fed pauses. My view is that the CPI report is supportive for risk assets, but not strong enough to create a decisive breakout by itself. BTC and equities may need falling real yields and improving liquidity—not merely stable policy expectations—to extend their gains sustainably.