المنشور

🌎 CPI DIDN’T BREAK THE MARKET — NOW ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE FED The July U.S. CPI delivered almost exactly what markets expected: Headline inflation: 3.4% YoY Core inflation: 2.5% YoY Monthly CPI: +0.1% Headline inflation eased from 3.5% in June, while core fell from 2.6%. The immediate reaction is constructive for risk assets. Markets have reduced the probability of a September Fed hike, with money markets moving from roughly 48% before CPI to about 39% afterward. Treasury yields and the dollar also moved lower. But this isn't a clean “Fed is dovish” signal. Inflation is still materially above the Fed's 2% target, while energy prices and geopolitical tensions remain potential sources of renewed inflation pressure. So the macro setup has changed from: “Could the Fed tighten further?” to: “How much room does the Fed actually have to ease?” That distinction matters. If yields continue falling and the dollar remains soft, financial conditions could become more supportive for risk assets. If oil pushes inflation expectations higher again, that relief could fade quickly. 📌 The next macro signals now matter enormously: • Treasury yields • Dollar strength • Oil prices • September Fed expectations • Tomorrow's PPI The CPI shock is over. The repricing of monetary policy is just beginning. #CPI #FederalReserve #Macro #Liquidity #InterestRates #Crypto #Markets #OKXOrbitTopics #CPIInLineFedWatch